The Monster Energy SMX World Championship Final takes place in Ridgedale, Missouri, this weekend, and as usual, nobody has managed to turn this thing into a runaway. The points pay triple this weekend too, which only adds to how crazy things could get. Let’s dive into the numbers to see how some of the different title scenarios could work out.

As mentioned, the points are paying triple the normal amount this weekend so whoever wins is going to rake in 75 points, not 25. That means there are a ton of riders who are mathematically still in contention, but realistically it’s down to Levi Kitchen, Ryder DiFrancesco, and Julien Beaumer.

DiFrancesco
It’s pretty simple for Ryder D too. If he finishes within the top three, and beats Kitchen, he wins the title, as long as Beaumer doesn’t win. If DiFrancesco finishes third and beats Kitchen, but Beaumer wins, DiFrancesco loses.

If DiFrancesco finishes fourth and Kitchen finishes fifth, the two would tie in points, and since Kitchen has an overall win, he’d win the title. So, if DiFrancesco finishes fourth or worse, he’d need Kitchen to finish sixth or worse in order to beat him in points.

Bottom line, a race win gets it done no matter what, as does second place as long as he finishes ahead of Kitchen. And with Rockstar Energy Husqvarna disbanding after this weekend, could there be a better sendoff than winning a championship?

We’ve got an interesting situation in the 450 Class. Jorge Prado has a 16-point lead, so he’s in control for now. But if he falters, it’s wide open for Hunter Lawrence, Haiden Deegan, Ken Roczen, and Cooper Webb.

Lawrence, Deegan, Roczen, Webb
Let’s for a moment entertain the idea that Prado finishes outside of the top three. If that happens we’ve got a winner-take-all situation between Lawrence, Deegan, Roczen, and Webb. It is possible that Prado finishes outside of the top three all by himself, but judging by his performance last week it doesn’t seem likely. He crashed, and still won! That said, there’s a lot of money on the line, which increases the motivation for someone to help Prado get better acquainted with the Missouri soil. Fortunately for Prado this just isn’t in the playbook for guys like Lawrence or Roczen, or even Webb these days.

We know Deegan has no problem playing that game, but he’s got Webb to deal with, who last week said he was going to make sure Deegan doesn’t win the title after Deegan took him out in Los Angeles. Webb’s temperature has probably come down somewhat since the incident, but it probably wouldn’t take much for it to spike again. He’ll also be in his final race with Monster Energy Star Racing Yamaha, so consequences from his team aren’t a concern.