• Defying the Odds: Hard to believe Jett Lawrence stumbled back to 18th in Moto 2. By median lap time, he was nearly a full second faster than the entire field, and 1.5 seconds quicker than race leader Justin Cooper. Charging through the pack, he was fastest in 4 of 6 sectors and clocked 9 of the race’s fastest laps.
  
• Still Searching: More heartbreak for Levi Kitchen. In Moto 1, his average and median lap times were better than Shimoda’s. He also controlled most of the track. But a tough start and a couple of unforced errors kept him from finally grabbing that elusive moto win.
  
• What If: Tomac, though, was right there. In Moto 1, he clearly was getting faster as time wound down and was closing in on Jett’s pace. A real what-if scenario. Could we have seen beast mode?
  
• Honda’s Perfect Day: Shimoda channeled his inner Jett in Moto 2. His median lap time was over 2 seconds faster than the next best, and the average told the same story. Even on raw speed, he was half a second clear of the field. 

This week, the story on the track and the story in the data tell two very different tales at RedBud. What looked like Jett Lawrence’s toughest race of the year, coming from 18th to 1st in Moto 2, still ended in a win. And the data? It shows he was never really threatened. Somehow, no matter the position, Jett always finds a way to be one of the fastest guys on the track. But the numbers also uncover more: Star Racing Yamaha’s mechanical woes negatively impacting Tomac, Chase Sexton’s return to Pro Motocross, and other unique details that don’t always show up in the highlight reels. So let’s dive in.

Track Breakdown:

The track map above shows who clocked the fastest average sector times in each motos. 

Moto 1 was, unfortunately, a familiar story. Jett and Hunter Lawrence methodically broke down the field. No one got close. Chase Sexton’s first moto back was underwhelming. But Eli Tomac looked fast—really fast—until his bike gave out halfway through. I always wrestle with how to place DNFs on the map. He didn’t complete 10 laps, so no consistency score. And you can argue he never got to fully race the track in all its glory. But for the time he was out there, he clocked the fastest average sector times in S2, S5, and S6. In another world, Tomac was fully dialed in for Moto 1.

Moto 2 gave us much more to chew on. Jett’s charge from the back, Sexton looking sharp late despite limited outdoor prep. It felt like a preview of what’s to come in the second half of the season. Jorge Prado led the first six laps, but faded hard. He didn’t even make the map. Neither did Justin Cooper, despite being up front. The numbers say neither had the pace to hang with Jett or Sexton. And in a classic turn, Sexton drops off the chart after crashing while chasing Jett.

This week we actually have a clear “hardest” sector. In both 450 motos, S5 gave riders the most trouble. That’s where the legendary Larocco’s Leap lives. The difference in times between clearing it and not? Massive. Since almost no one in the 250 class attempted it, they didn’t deal with that same consistency gap.

450 Moto 1:

SEGRiderAvg.
TimeFastest
Time (All)Sector
Consistency (All)

1	H. Lawrence	15.29	14.77	81.6
2	J. Lawrence	29.92	28.86	81.8
3	H. Lawrence	26.36	25.02	79.7
4	J. Lawrence	24.75	24.10	83.7
5	J. Lawrence	14.27	13.54	67.8
6	J. Lawrence	18.31	17.40	72.4

450 Moto 2:

SEGRiderAvg.
TimeFastest
Time (All)Sector
Consistency (All)

1	H. Lawrence	15.36	14.76	74.8
2	J. Lawrence	30.60	29.43	81.7
3	J. Lawrence	26.85	25.14	72.2
4	J. Lawrence	24.68	23.88	71.0
5	J. Lawrence	14.09	13.28	67.0
6	J. Cooper	18.83	17.43	75.4

Lap Time Breakdown:

RedBud is known for getting rough. The lap times reflect it. The fastest lap dropped by only 0.6 seconds between motos, but the median lap time dropped by 1.8. That’s a sign the track was harder to piece together in Moto 2. You can see it in the consistency scores too. Still, Jett stayed dangerous. No matter where he is on the track, if he’s healthy, pencil him in for the most fast laps.

Moto 1 Fast Laps (16 Timed Laps)

• J. Lawrence: 10
• Hampshire: 3
• Cooper, Plessinger, Webb: 1

Class Average Consistency: 70.0
Class Median Consistency: 84.6

Moto 2 Fast Laps (15 Timed Laps)

• J. Lawrence: 9
• Sexton: 3
• Cooper: 2
• Hampshire: 1

Class Average Consistency: 65.2
Class Median Consistency: 79.6

450 Moto 1 Analysis

RIDERAverage
TimeMedian
TimeFastest
TimeLap 99Consistency

J. Lawrence	2:09.10	2:08.37	2:06.64	2:04.91	91.7
E. Tomac*	2:09.38	2:09.20	2:08.09	2:06.30	0
H. Lawrence	2:10.21	2:09.34	2:07.65	2:04.90	91.3
R. Hampshire	2:10.94	2:10.76	2:08.29	2:06.00	86.8
C. Sexton	2:11.32	2:11.03	2:09.17	2:07.09	92.6

Rider’s sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

What else can we say? No one was touching Jett in Moto 1. He even made quick work of Hunter. Tomac, though, was right there. Had his bike stayed alive, he was the clear number two. A real what-if scenario. Could we have seen beast mode?

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Several riders broke 90 in Moto 1, but both Lawrence brothers were in that group. Hunter continues to be a consistency menace, and one of only two to break 90 in both motos. The other? Harri Kullas.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Jett and Hunter were nearly identical in theoretical best pace. Their Lap 99 times were separated by just 0.01 seconds. So do we question Hunter’s closing strength or just admire Jett’s relentless pursuit of the lead?

450 Moto 2 Analysis

RIDERAverage
TimeMedian
TimeFastest
TimeLap 99Consistency

J. Lawrence	2:09.95	2:08.93	2:07.26	2:04.61	89.5
C. Sexton	2:11.69	2:09.85	2:07.73	2:05.99	88.0
H. Lawrence	2:11.35	2:10.22	2:08.93	2:07.17	92.7
J. Cooper	2:11.24	2:10.67	2:07.91	2:06.28	86.0
E. Tomac	2:13.18	2:12.86	2:10.92	2:08.64	88.2

Rider’s sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

Hard to believe Jett stumbled back to 18th. By median lap time, he was nearly a full second faster than the field. And 1.5 faster than leader Justin Cooper. But Sexton’s comeback might be just as promising. His pace at time’s rivaled Jett’s. Had he not tucked the front, we could’ve had a serious battle. Fingers crossed we get a clean race between Jett, Sexton, and Tomac sometime soon.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Hunter again broke 90. The guy just gets it done. But don’t overlook Jett. Coming through the pack and still nearly breaking 90 is no small feat.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Jett was the only rider to dip into the 2:04s again, and his Lap 99 time matched his Moto 1 best. Hunter fell off by nearly three seconds. It just proves Jett’s closing speed is on another level.

And if the 450s brought excitement, the 250s made us throw everything we thought we knew about the class right out the window. Jo Shimoda went 1-1, which shouldn’t be a surprise. RedBud has always been one of his stronger tracks. Tom Vialle and Levi Kitchen finally look like they’re getting up to leader pace. But we have to ask the question: with Haiden Deegan practically absent in both motos due to bike issues and health concerns, did those guys really step it up, or is this just what the pace looks like without Deegan?

Track Breakdown:

The track map above shows who clocked the fastest average sector times in each motos. 

Moto 1 should have—and could have—been Levi Kitchen’s. It was his to lose. But we’ve seen it before this season: Kitchen riding that razor-thin line between out of control and undeniably fast. This time, he tipped just over the edge and lost his shot. Still, credit where it’s due. Shimoda did a great job managing his pace across the rest of the track and sealed the win.

Then in Moto 2, Shimoda dialed it up to 11. Doing his best Jett Lawrence impression, Shimoda controlled most of the track. For a moment, it looked like Deegan might run him down. But Deegan couldn’t keep it on two wheels, and it bit him. With such a large championship lead, Deegan didn’t need to push, but you know it still stung. A couple of shoutouts are in order. Max Vohland claimed a fastest sector. Given his setup, that’s impressive. And Dilan Schwartz, while not showing up on the map, rebounded from a rough Moto 1 with a really strong Moto 2. 

250 Moto 1:

SEGRiderAvg.
TimeFastest
Time (All)Sector
Consistency (All)

1	L. Kitchen	15.61	15.12	77.3
2	T. Vialle	30.55	29.39	81.8
3	L. Kitchen	27.23	26.23	71.1
4	J. Shimoda	25.42	24.60	83.7
5	L. Kitchen	15.21	14.76	76.9
6	J. Shimoda	18.80	17.86	75.8

250 Moto 2:

SEGRiderAvg.
TimeFastest
Time (All)Sector
Consistency (All)

1	H. Deegan	15.61	14.93	78.0
2	J. Shimoda	31.32	30.10	83.0
3	J. Shimoda	27.65	25.74	66.7
4	J. Shimoda	26.03	25.17	81.3
5	J. Shimoda	15.44	14.86	78.0
6	M. Vohland	19.41	17.82	64.2

Lap Time Breakdown:

With the 250s racing second for the third time in six rounds, we again saw how the combo of less horsepower and the roughest track of the day impacts lap times. The fastest lap dropped by over 1.5 seconds. The average lap time dipped just as much. You can clearly see in the histogram how much slower Moto 2 was. And this week, the 250s never even got close to matching 450 pace. 

Moto 1 Fast Laps (15 Timed Laps)

• Kitchen: 6
• Vialle:  4
• Shimoda: 3
• Deegan: 2

Class Average Consistency: 71.1
Class Median Consistency: 83.1

Moto 2 Fast Laps (15 Timed Laps)

• Shimoda: 7
• Deegan: 3
• Mosiman, Swoll: 2
• Thrasher: 1

Class Average Consistency: 71.7
Class Median Consistency: 83.3

250 Moto 1 Analysis

RIDERAverage
TimeMedian
TimeFastest
TimeLap 99Consistency

L. Kitchen	2:13.28	2:13.42	2:11.42	2:09.89	89.7
J. Shimoda	2:13.49	2:13.54	2:11.08	2:08.44	87.1
M. Mosiman	2:14.65	2:14.53	2:12.47	2:10.21	88.7
T. Vialle	2:14.56	2:14.70	2:10.24	2:09.19	72.0
G. Marchbanks	2:14.86	2:15.40	2:11.81	2:11.01	83.1

Rider’s sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

More heartbreak for Kitchen. His average and median lap times were better than Shimoda’s. But starting position and a couple of unforced errors kept him from finally grabbing a moto win. Still, Shimoda had the fastest lap, and it’s entirely possible he had more in the tank if Kitchen made a real charge.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

The 250 class continues to struggle with consistency this year. Only five 90+ scores, and two of those were from Jordan Smith. Despite wild off-track moments in Moto 2, Smith posted 92.5 and 95.9 scores. A steely veteran performance for Triumph.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Shimoda had the pace. Over a full second better than Kitchen’s Lap 99. The closest guy behind him? Tom Vialle, still 0.3 seconds off.

250 Moto 2 Analysis

RIDERAverage
TimeMedian
TimeFastest
TimeLap 99Consistency

J. Shimoda	2:15.66	2:14.31	2:11.83	2:10.46	89.8
M. Mosiman	2:17.35	2:16.50	2:12.29	2:10.83	80.2
H. Deegan	2:16.52	2:16.55	2:13.06	2:10.10	83.3
J. Swoll	2:17.38	2:16.68	2:12.45	2:11.59	78.4
R. DiFrancesco	2:17.90	2:16.94	2:13.26	2:11.53	79.7

Rider’s sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

Moto 2 had a ton of fireworks lined up that didn’t quite pan out. Shimoda took what looked like an “easy” win. Jalek Swoll, back from injury, is looking phenomenal. Once his fitness builds up, he should be right there fighting for wins. But just look at Shimoda’s lap times. His median was over 2 seconds faster than the next best, and his average tells the same story. Even by fastest lap, he was half a second clear.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

We already highlighted Jordan Smith’s strong rides, but Nate Thrasher and Max Vohland also broke the 90 mark in Moto 2.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Deegan didn’t have much to celebrate this weekend, but he did have the fastest Lap 99 in Moto 2. Despite the banged-up knee, he still had theoretical pace. All is not lost for the points leader.