Fernando Vargas Jr. says he doesn’t think Terence Crawford will be able to “withstand” the power of Canelo Alvarez in their fight this Saturday, September 13. Canelo (63-2-2, 39 KOs) hits too hard, and it’s too big of a weight jump for Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) to take going up from 154 to 168.

Vargas Jr. predicts that Crawford, 37, will have success early, landing shots that snap Canelo’s head back. But once Alvarez gets warmed up, he’s going to put it on Crawford, and it’ll be downhill for the challenger.

Canelo’s IBF, WBA, WBC, and WBO super middleweight titles will be on the line for this fight at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Crawford is getting the opportunity to attempt to become a three-division undisputed champion. He’s been allowed to skip over the preliminary fights against the super middleweight contenders, Osleys Iglesias, Diego Pacheco, and Christian Mbilli, to get this title shot against Alvarez. It’s akin to a team going to the Super Bowl without competing in the playoffs.

The Resume Difference is Clear

“I just see Canelo, it’s his resume. He’s going into this fight with fights against Cotto, Mayweather, and Trout. He’s fought all these different fighters that give him that mental edge,” said Fernando Vargas Jr. to Ring Magazine, giving his reasons why Canelo Alvarez will defeat Terence Crawford on Saturday.

There’s no comparison between the resumes of Canelo and Crawford. The Mexican star has fought high-level opposition since 2013. Besides the names Vargas Jr. mentioned, Canelo has fought these notable fighters:

• Gennadiy Golovkin x 3
• Dmitry Bivol
• Sergey Kovalev
• Erislandy Lara
• Callum Smith

The only names fighters Crawford has fought that weren’t past their best are Israil Madrimov and Viktor Postol. Although Crawford fought Shawn Porter, Errol Spence, Yuriorkis Gamboa, and Ricky Burns, they were on the downsides of their careers.

“Whether people say he’s on his decline or not, this is what makes it a more competitive fight,” said Vargas Jr. about Canelo. “I think he’ll have early success with Canelo, maybe snapping his head back,” said Fernando about Crawford.

A Vintage Canelo for Crawford

The version of Canelo that defeated former undisputed junior middleweight champion Jermell Charlo two years ago on September 30, 2023, may prove to be too powerful for Crawford. Canelo was in vintage form in that fight, landing huge shots that made Jermell hesitant to stand still and trade. Jermell is bigger and arguably stronger than Crawford. If he couldn’t handle the two-division jump up to face Canelo, it’s doubtful that Terence will.

Can Crawford Take a Punch?

“I think Canelo will end up putting his punches together, and I think that power will be too much. I don’t think Terence Crawford could withstand Canelo’s best shots. But that’s what makes it a good fight, and a fight that fans want to see,” said Vargas Jr.

If Canelo is able to land the kinds of shots that he was hitting his last three opponents with, it’ll be challenging for Crawford to withstand them. Although Bud has been sparring in training camp to prepare for Canelo’s power, that’s not the same thing as being in the ring with the real thing.

The fans who are skeptical about Crawford’s chances of winning would have fewer doubts if he’d taken one or two tune-ups at 168 against a big puncher that could approximate the power of Alvarez. Crawford chose not to take a fight in the 13 months he’s been out of the ring, and that’s a red flag that he’s heading toward oblivion.

Mexican Style vs. Sweet Science

“I understand the sweet science of hit-and-not-get-hit. The Mexican style is to duke it out in the middle of the ring toe-to-toe. ‘I don’t care how many times you hit me. I’m going to hit you back twice as much,'” said reporter Claudia Trejos to Netflix, explaining the difference in how Canelo fights with his Mexican style and Crawford’s more sweet science approach. “It’s that relentless spirit.”

As Claudio points out, Canelo has the Mexican style to “duke it out” with his opponents, and he’s going up against a more defensive-minded Crawford. Some fans who haven’t watched Crawford’s past fights assume that the way he fought aggressively against Errol Spence Jr. in their match on July 29, 2023, is how he has always fought.

That was an exception rather than the rule. Crawford has always been a counter-puncher who avoids getting hit. It’s unrealistic to expect him to change for this fight, especially going up against the biggest puncher of his career.