As the regular season winds down, almost half the league is focused on the upcoming offseason. One of the first major decisions which teams need to make is whether to issue any of their free agents a qualifying offer. That needs to happen within five days of the end of the World Series.

The qualifying offer is a one-year proposal at a fixed rate — calculated as the average of the 125 highest salaries in MLB. MLBTR contributor Ethan Hullihen estimates that this year’s QO price will be set around $23.1MM. Teams can only issue a QO to a player who had spent the entire preceding season on their roster.

Players who are issued the QO have a couple weeks to gauge the early market before deciding whether to accept. If they accept, they have full no-trade protection until June 15 of the following season (as does any major league free agent who signs a big league deal). If they decline, the team that issued the QO would be entitled to draft compensation if they sign elsewhere. Signing another club’s qualified free agent comes with draft and potentially international signing bonus pool penalties that can serve as a drag on the market for mid-level players. The compensation and penalties for losing/signing qualified free agents varies depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses.

Yesterday, we looked at a hitting class that’ll likely have four or five recipients. That’s already an atypically low number — reflecting the weakness of the upcoming free agent group. There are even fewer candidates on the pitching side, where there’s a chance only one player will be issued the QO.

That paradoxically reflects that starting pitching depth is the relative strength of the class. Most of the notable rental starters were traded at the deadline — rendering them ineligible to receive a QO. There’s only one starter who’s a lock and a couple borderline calls for the top free agent relievers.

No-Doubters

• Trevor Rogers (Orioles)

Rogers has come pretty close to backing up last year’s second half breakout. He’s not a Cy Young candidate but has established himself as an above-average starter capable of holding a full season workload. Rogers has taken the ball 27 times and logged 151 2/3 innings with a 4.15 earned run average. He’s striking out a league average 22% of batters faced against an excellent 6% walk rate.

It’s not the most overpowering profile. Rogers averages a solid but not exceptional 93.4 mph on his four-seam fastball. Opponents have had a lot of success against the changeup that he uses as his best secondary offering. Rogers generates plus spin on the fastball and can pitch above barrels, leading to a lot of weak fly-ball contact.

Rogers’ production this season has been up and down. He started the year terribly around a two-week absence in April/May due to an illness. He’s been on a roll since the beginning of June, firing 103 innings of 2.88 ERA ball with a 24.4% strikeout rate. Baltimore would be happy if Rogers accepted a $23.1MM salary, but he’s likely to decline the QO in search of a multi-year contract.

Borderline Calls

• David Bednar (Yankees)
• Adrian Morejon (Padres)

Morejon and Bednar are the two best impending free agent relievers. The former should be in line for the biggest contract in the bullpen class. Morejon will play all of next season at age 28 and is coming off another excellent year. He’s amidst his third consecutive sub-3.00 ERA showing, firing 78 2/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball. Morejon has fanned 30% of opponents with an elite 59.4% ground-ball percentage behind a 99 mph sinker — the hardest fastball of any left-handed pitcher in the sport.

Bednar has had an excellent first full season in the Bronx. The two-time All-Star has gone 33-36 in save chances while pitching to a 2.70 ERA across 63 1/3 innings. Bednar got out to a shaky start to the year and hit a nadir with an ugly stretch in early-mid May. He’s been one of the best relievers in the league for the past three and a half months, pitching to a 1.43 ERA behind a 29.5% strikeout rate in his last 37 2/3 innings.

The Yankees could accommodate a lofty one-year salary for Bednar, who’ll hit free agency in advance of his age-32 season. A qualifying offer for Morejon would be riskier for San Diego, given their recent spending habits, but it might be the first real test of the short-term payroll impact under their new ownership. The Padres will also need to rebuild essentially their entire rotation this offseason, though they could consider stretching Morejon out as a starter if they’re able to bring him back.

Long Shots

• Brady Singer (Reds)
• Michael Soroka (Diamondbacks)

The Reds surprisingly held Singer at the trade deadline. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported at the time that Cincinnati’s front office viewed the qualifying offer as a realistic fallback. Singer was amidst his strongest two-month run of the season, but he’s been tagged for an even 6.00 ERA in seven starts since the deadline. Singer is up to a 5.03 mark with a career-low 18.2% strikeout rate and has been crushed by left-handed hitters this year. Even if the Reds were seriously considering the QO on August 3, it’d be difficult to justify that kind of salary now.

Soroka has had a nice season on a rate basis, giving the Diamondbacks 99 1/3 innings of 3.53 ERA ball with a solid 23% strikeout rate. Arizona is going to need to add multiple starting pitchers this offseason. Had Soroka held up all season, they might’ve considered the qualifying offer. Injuries have again been an issue, as a glute strain and shoulder discomfort have limited Soroka to 17 1/3 frames in the second half. It’d make more sense to try to bring him back on a two-year deal at a lower annual rate.

Ineligible

• Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks)^
• Kevin Gausman (Cubs)*^
• Sonny Gray (Red S0x)^
• Foster Griffin (Guardians)*
• Clay Holmes (Cubs)*
• Shota Imanaga (Cubs)^
• Michael King (Padres)^
• Tyler Mahle (Braves)*
• Nick Martinez (Rays)^
• Dustin May (Brewers)*
• Casey Mize (Padres)*
• Freddy Peralta (Rays)*
• Robbie Ray (Padres)^*
• Tarik Skubal (Dodgers)*
• Brandon Woodruff (Brewers)^

Everyone in this group was either traded and/or has already received a qualifying offer in their careers. Players can only be tagged with a QO once under the collective bargaining agreement. Skubal, Gray, King (if he opts out), Peralta, Holmes and Ray all would’ve been either locks or strong candidates if they’d been eligible.

^ Indicates player previously received QO
* Indicates player changed teams midseason