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Orgo-Life the new way to the future Advertising by AdpathwayThe numbers from last year’s National League Championship Series speak for themselves.
Runs: Dodgers 15, Brewers 4
Hits: Dodgers 32, Brewers 14
Home runs: Dodgers 6, Brewers 1
Innings led: Dodgers 26, Brewers 1
Wins: Dodgers 4, Brewers 0
“They were utterly embarrassed last year,” a rival scout said of the Brewers this week while reflecting on the Dodgers’ pennant-sealing NLCS sweep last October. “They had the best record in the National League, and they just got their a– handed to them.”
Now, 12 months later, they will have a chance for redemption.
On Sunday, the Dodgers will travel to Milwaukee again to open a second straight NLCS between the teams.
In many ways, this year’s matchup is being played against a similar backdrop as a year ago.
The Brewers are the higher-seeded team and hold home-field advantage, coming off a 103-win campaign in which they maximized their low-payroll roster.
The Dodgers, however, are the clear-cut favorites, with a high-priced and star-studded core trying to add to their modern-day dynasty.
Thus, this week, the California Post spoke to two rival NL scouts to ask if this year’s series could play out differently.
The short answer: Yes, with both evaluators seeing a pathway for the Brewers to pull off a payback-minded upset.
“It just feels like a different team [this year],” Scout 1 said.
“I think a big part of this entire season for them is the redemption factor,” Scout 2 added.
Ahead of Game 1 on Sunday night in Milwaukee, here are the factors that could decide who reaches the World Series:
The Miz-ing Piece
Jacob Misiorowski was part of the Brewers’ playoff push last year. He even threw five innings of tantalizing bulk relief in a nine-strikeout effort during Game 3.
This year, though, he represents that biggest difference between this Brewers squad and those of failed Octobers past.
The breakout 24-year-old star is the presumptive NL Cy Young Award winner. He is expected to start Game 1 opposite Tarik Skubal. And if Milwaukee is to challenge the Dodgers, it’s likely to begin with a couple strong outings from him.
“It’s elite stuff,” Scout 1 said, stating the obvious of a 6-foot-7 right-hander with a 105 mph fastball.
But …
“The Dodgers know how to take at-bats against elite pitching,” he added.
Indeed, the main question will be whether the Dodgers can do to Misiorowski what they did to Chris Sale in the NL Division Series, driving up his pitch count and pouncing on rare mistakes.
“They’re gonna step into that box and just say, ‘We probably aren’t going to beat this guy, but we just need to get him out of the ballgame as early as possible,’” Scout 2 said. “They could just wear him down, fouling pitches off, taking pitches.”
Misiorowski faced a similar grind in the NLDS, when he needed 88 pitches just to get through four innings of two-run ball against the Padres.
But, his track record against the Dodgers is nonetheless promising. In addition to last year’s NLCS appearance, he has a pair of six-inning, one-run starts against them in the last two regular seasons, combining for 18 strikeouts in those two wins.
“I absolutely wouldn’t be shocked if he pitched a two-hitter, struck out 11 and the Brewers win 3-1 that first game,” Scout 1 said. “But if he doesn’t get out of the third because he’s thrown 65 pitches, [I’m not] going to be shocked, [either].”
Another year wiser
The real question in this NLCS is whether the Brewers can hit Dodgers pitching, after they batted a stunning .118 in last year’s matchup.
This October, Milwaukee’s lineup is roughly the same but also notably different.
Jackson Chourio has graduated from young talent (who was also battling an injury last October) to bona fide star. Brice Turang and William Contreras are another year older and more experienced. And others like Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell have emerged as dependable complementary pieces. Even former MVP Christian Yelich, coming off a career-worst regular season, showed signs of renewed life in the NLDS.
To Scout 1, it has made the Brewers reminiscent of another current contender that had to grow from repeated playoff setbacks.
“I think that they’re like the Dodgers, when the Dodgers were a lot younger,” he said. “They grind out at-bats. They’re hard [to pitch to]. Obviously not as talented from one to nine … but they have the same kind of mentality.”
Indeed, the Brewers were best in MLB this season in batting average (.258), on-base-percentage (.341), walk rate (10.6%) and chase rate (a league-low 26.6%). Though they hit the second-fewest homers in the majors, they scored the second-most runs.
“To beat a team like the Dodgers, I think they’re going to have to work counts, [make] no easy outs,” Scout 1 added. “You might still not get a run off of Skubal, but if you can get him out of the game in the sixth inning, and you get to the bullpen, you’re in a tight game.”
The Brewers, of course, failed to do that last year.
But, as Scout 2 noted, their pitching staff — which also includes standout rookie starter Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA) and a deep bullpen that ranked third in reliever ERA (3.40) — may be better positioned to put their own clamps down on what’s been a homer-reliant Dodgers offense.
“You need to be able to manufacture runs, so I would be more concerned about the [Dodgers’] approach, where you’re relying on the long ball,” Scout 2 said.
Echoed Scout 1, while referencing the Dodgers’ NLDS against the Braves: “The Braves kind of [kept games close]. They just didn’t get the big hit … So it’ll be the same kind of principle, but I think the Brewers are better at it than the Braves are. It just feels like they’ve been there.”
No Sho’ thing
One other key difference in this year’s NLCS: The reigning series MVP is nowhere near his normal self.
Unlike last year, Shohei Ohtani will not pitch for the Dodgers amid ongoing right arm and left knee injuries. But the bigger problem has been the four-time MVP’s slumping bat, with Ohtani having failed to hit a home run since Aug. 18 and coming off an underwhelming 2-for-13 showing in the NLDS.
The Dodgers were able to compensate for that in their defeat of the Braves. Other stars like Max Muncy (three home runs), Freddie Freeman (two home runs) and even the recently resurgent Kyle Tucker (5-for-15) helped pick up the slack.
Still, at some point, Ohtani’s lack of production could threaten to trip them up.
“If you don’t have your legs, then you look like he looks,” Scout 1 said. “There’s times when he’s healthy, you throw him a mistake and he’s fooled, but it’s in the zone and he can still hit it 400 feet because he’s healthy. But he’s not doing that right now. He can’t get his legs under him. He just doesn’t look healthy to me.”
Scout 2 concurred, noting the mechanical disconnect Ohtani’s injuries seem to be causing.
“He’s still producing bat speed,” Scout 2 said. “But the effort that it’s taking him right now to get there, that’s what’s holding him back.”
It was just one more reason why both scouts were bullish on the Brewers’ chances.
They thought Milwaukee’s lineup is better equipped to handle Dodgers pitching than last year. That the combination of Misiorowski, Henderson and a deep and talented bullpen could frustrate LA’s own offense. And that in a series likely to be full of tight, low-scoring games, the Brewers’ ability to do the little things could tip the scales.
“Would I be shocked if they got swept? No, because you’re, they’re going to face four Cy Young Award [contenders],” Scout 1 said. “But if the Brewers get one of those games at home to start the series, I think they win in six.”
“They got to win one of the first two games,” Scout 2 agreed. “Then they got to come to Dodger Stadium and they got to win a three-game series, which they’re more than capable of doing. So they win a three-game series at Dodger Stadium, they go back and they close it out in Game 6 at home.”
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