Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Remember that brief period of time when Tarik Skubal didn’t look like Tarik Skubal? In June, in his first three starts after returning from tiny-needle surgery, Skubal went 0-2 with a 4.96 ERA and a 5.86 FIP. He struck out as many batters as ever, but he just kept giving up home runs, and everyone whispered to their neighbors with alarm, “Maybe the needle wasn’t as tiny as we thought it was. Is it possible that it was just a regular needle with a good publicist?” Well, that period of time was shorter than you might remember. It was, in fact, just 12 days long. Over his final 16 starts, Skubal regained his form. He went 9-3 with a 2.36 ERA and a 2.14 FIP. Only once over that period did he allow even four runs in a start.

With Game 1 of the NLDS in the books, Skubal has extended that unhittable stretch to 17 starts. Under an oppressively hot midday sun in Los Angeles, the Dodgers quashed the Braves by a score of 5-3. The game started out looking like a pitcher’s duel, spent a few innings looking like it might be a rout, and ended up surprisingly close. All eight runs scored by way of the home run. Skubal was brilliant, striking out seven, walking two, and allowing two hits across six innings. At one point he retired 15 Braves in a row. The effort allowed him to lower his career postseason ERA of 2.04 even further. With a 1-0 series lead, the Dodgers have rounded into form, and the two-time defending champs look every bit the juggernaut we expected back in the spring.

The Braves came into the series with questions on both sides of the ball. Their offense ran a 97 wRC+, which ranked 20th in baseball. Stars like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson were very good rather than great. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley were both well below average at the plate. Ha-Seong Kim’s wRC+ of 7 didn’t exactly solve their problems at shortstop. The rotation was thin even before Walt Weiss brought Chris Sale out of the bullpen to close out the Wild Card series on Thursday, which forced the Braves to start the NLDS with a bullpen game. Atlanta’s relievers are perfectly adequate; they collectively ranked either 12th or 14th in baseball according to both the regular and expected versions of ERA and FIP this year, but they’re going up against an offense that’s more than adequate.