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Predictions, Odds, Analysis! UFC Nashville, X-Factor

4 days ago 4

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This weekend (Sat., July 12, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee for UFC Nashville. After a rare week off, the promotion is bringing its heaviest hitter back into the limelight, as knockout king Derrick Lewis takes on massive newcomer Tallison Teixeira. There are several other fan favorite vets on the card, like Stephen Thompson and Calvin Kattar, who will surely help make for an exciting night in “Music City.”

Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Featherweight: Calvin Kattar (-105) vs. Steve Garcia (-125)

Best Win for Kattar? Ricardo Lamas For Garcia? Chase Hooper
Current Streak: Kattar has lost four in a row, whereas Garcia has won five straight inside the Octagon
X-Factor: Kattar’s career may be coming to a close
How these two match up: While not initially obvious, I see some similarities in the careers of these athletes.

Kattar was an 18-fight, nine year veteran when he made his UFC debut back in 2017. The benefit of all that time and experience was an already complete fighter, immediately a very good player in the Featherweight mix. The unfortunate aspect is that the boxer’s time near the top hasn’t been particularly long, as his current losing streak began just five years later. Already 37 years of age, Kattar has to prove there’s still gas in the tank.

Garcia, meanwhile, debuted in 2020 already fairly deep into his career with a good amount of high-level experience in Bellator. He struggled off the jump, but since returning to Featherweight has really put it all together and showed a complete MMA game. At 33 years of age, the aggressive finisher is coming into his prime and ready to make a push for the top.

As for the prediction itself, it’s hard to argue with momentum in the fight business. Kattar’s boxing is still the best skill between the duo, but Garcia is dangerous everywhere and will present his foe with multiple problems. More to the point, it just feels like Kattar’s confidence and timing are a little off now, which could be very problematic if Garcia is able to get the ball rolling early on. He’s a fighter that builds momentum quickly, so if Kattar isn’t able to earn his respect early with hard connections, the fight may slip from him before it even gets going properly.

Prediction: Garcia via decision

Featherweight: Nate Landwehr (+215) vs. Morgan Charriere (-265)

Best Win for Landwehr? David Onama For Charriere? Gabriel Miranda
Current Streak: Both men lost their last fight
X-Factor: Landwehr is 37 and has been in plenty of wars
How these two match up: I view this quality Featherweight scrap as more of a pick ‘em.

Landwehr is a difficult fighter to predict, I’ll admit. He’s aggressive to a fault at times, but when his game works, it’s brilliant to watch. His three-fight win streak over Onama, Ludovit Klein, and Austin Lingo seemed to imply a ranking was in his future, but then losing two of three really halted his momentum.

Win or lose, “The Train” is a whole lot of fun.

Charriere has shown better skills than his UFC record suggests. A veteran who cut his teeth in Cage Warriors, “The Last Pirate” is really slick and deceptively powerful. However, the counter puncher is also somewhat prone to close decisions, and several splits that went against him could have been the biggest wins of his career with just a touch more activity.

Here’s the rub: Landwehr is going to come at Charriere, giving him plenty of opportunity to time his counters. The question is whether or not Landwehr can overwhelm his foe with output or Charriere can sit him down with strikes or reactive takedowns. Prior to the Doo Ho Choi, I would’ve confidently sided with Landwehr to put in work and get the job done, but it’s a little worrying how easily the South Korean was able to wrestle him.

Charriere has the skills and timing to capitalize on Landwehr’s defensive openings in more ways than one, which should be enough to prevent Landwehr from building too much volume. That said, I still don’t think it’ll be an easy cruise for the French talent ...

Prediction: Charriere via decision

Heavyweight: Vitor Petrino (-750) vs. Austen Lane (+525)

Best Win for Petrino? Modestas Bukauskas For Lane? Robelis Despaigne
Current Streak: Petrino has lost two in a row, whereas Lane lost his last bout
X-Factor: This is Petrino’s first bout at Heavyweight
How these two match up: It’s always good to get a fresh reminder that Heavyweight is just a division of 205-pounders who don’t feel like dieting.

Petrino is a talented offensive fighter who has stopped some genuinely good opponents at 27 years of age. Unfortunately, he also has very little respect for his opponent’s offense, which is why he’s been finished in his last two appearances — getting guillotined by Anthony Smith in 2024? Seriously? I can actually remember a specific moment in round two of his recent slugfest versus Dustin Jacoby where I thought to myself, “This man fights with an absurd level of confidence, the kind of arrogance that only belongs to a young athlete who’s never been knocked down.”

A few minutes later, he was unconscious.

Lane is a decent technical fighter by Heavyweight standards. He shows up in good shape with discernible muscles. He oughta do better than his current 1-3 (1) UFC record, but unfortunately, the man has neither good defense nor a good chin, which makes for an unforgivable sin at Heavyweight.

The extremely obvious outcome here is a Petrino knockout. Could he be wrestled by the bigger man, stranded at distance, or clipped on the counter? Sure. It’s possible. Petrino is still more physical gift than technical skill, and some of that physical advantage will disappear against bigger, stronger opposition.

Much more likely is he drops a bomb on Lane within two minutes.

Prediction: Petrino via knockout

Light Heavyweight: Junior Tafa (-166) vs. Tuco Tokkos (+140)

Best Win for Tafa? Parker Porter For Tokkos? Ty Flores
Current Streak: Tafa won his last bout, whereas Tokkos has lost two straight
X-Factor: Tafa has dieted down to a new division and looks to be in much better shape
How these two match up: This should be good fun for however long it lasts.

Tafa is a straightforward enough slugger, though he definitely has the gift of good timing and natural power. Historically, his primary issue has been a horrific ground game, which combined with a size disadvantage at Heavyweight produced easy opportunity for even remotely skilled opponents. Tokkos, meanwhile, has lost about every fight in a major promotion he’s accepted. He doesn’t have any particularly standout skills, but he should still be the better ground fighter here.

I don’t think it’s big enough a grappling gap to overcome the striking and power differential, however. Tafa is genuinely a pretty mean puncher, and he should be better able to resist the takedown at Light Heavyweight.

I doubt this one leaves the first.

Prediction: Tafa via knockout