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NLDS Game 3 Preview: Brewers vs Padres

4 days ago 3

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Image credit: USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Milwaukee Brewers (1) at San Diego Padres (4), 9:30 PM EDT

MIL: RHP Dustin May (7-9, 4.70 ERA, 97 DRA-; 2-2, 5.65 ERA, 101 DRA- with Milwaukee), SDP: RHP Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA, 92 DRA-)

May, for once healthy, posted career highs in starts, 31, and innings, 145⅔. The latter figure, equal to 4.7 innings per start, is the fewest innings pitched ever by a pitcher with that many starts. He averaged 5.2 innings per outing with the Cardinals but only 3.7 after he and reliever JoJo Romero were swapped to the Brewers for a couple prospects. For his part, Pivetta averaged only 4.3 innings per start, but that’s largely because he missed most of the year with an elbow flexor strain that had him on the injured list from April 13 to September 7, warranting caution. Since his return, he’s thrown 18 ⅔ innings over four starts, with a 1.45 ERA, 3.10 FIP, and 97 DRA-. May, over the same timeframe, completed 13 ⅓ innings over four starts with a 4.73 ERA, 4.88 FIP, and 110 ERA-. The point is, don’t expect to see a lot of either starter tonight.

May relies primarily on three fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter) and a sweeper, with an occasional curveball and changeup thrown to left-handed batters. All rate as average or better by StuffPro. Pivetta relies primarily on his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half the time this year. He’ll also throw a curveball against left-handed batters and mixes in a cutter and a sweeper against righties. His offerings don’t rate as high as May’s on StuffPro but his command gives them higher PitchPro grades. Pivetta is one of the game’s more extreme flyball pitchers; only 31.5% of his batted balls were hit on the ground this year. May, at 41.1%, is more average.

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