San Diego Padres (4) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (1), 4:00 PM ET

SDP: Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA, 103 DRA-), MIL: Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA, 89 DRA-)

Michael King is pretty middle-of-the-pack, as far as starters go. He ended the season on a difficult outing against the Dodgers, then rapidly bounced back to throw seven scoreless innings in the first game of the Wild Card. It’s unfortunate that he’s likely San Diego’s best starter when you consider the strength of the opposing staff, but if he can repeat last week’s performance (or really anything close to it), the Padres will be in good shape. He’s had strong outings at American Family Field before, so it’s hardly asking the impossible.

The bad news is that the Brewers hit righties well, and none of King’s pitches are necessarily elite; his slider (6% usage) and sweeper (19%) get benign StuffPro grades, but his changeup (26%) is relatively weak on that front and has been significantly outperforming its xSLG and xwOBA. Virtually all of Milwaukee’s lineup has the potential to seriously punish offspeed pitches, particularly Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers (both +4 RV, per Statcast), so he’ll need to be careful with his mix.

Rookie starter Logan Henderson is King’s foil in many ways. He’s not Milwaukee’s no. 1—though given how last night went, that might be a good thing—but there are rotations where he probably would be. One primary weakness is his lack of experience, and this will be his first postseason appearance. Fortunately for the Brewers, he gets to start at home, where he’s been far better than he has on the road—even when he hasn’t put up the greatest performance, they have yet to lose when he takes the mound in Milwaukee.

That obviously has the potential to change today in the face of a very active Padres offense. Henderson’s fastball, which he throws 47% of the time, is notably weaker against right-handed hitters, who are slugging .356 on it compared to lefties’ .228. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. would love to get their hands (or their bats, as it were) on one.