Atlanta Braves (3) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (2), 8:00 PM ET

ATL: The Ghost of Chris Sale Past/Present/Future (14-9, 2.16 ERA, 68 DRA-), LAD: Blake Snell (4-1, 1.90 ERA, 82 DRA-)

With their pitching reserves somewhat depleted by their failure to sweep the Phillies, Atlanta opted to run a bullpen game against Tarik Skubal yesterday, perhaps deliberately accepting the likelihood of a loss in exchange for a stronger start today. They have yet to announce a starter at the time of writing, but assuming that Chris Sale is indeed taking the mound, that might be as strong as it gets. It’s impossible not to think of the complete game shutout he threw against the Dodgers back in August when evaluating this matchup—while he may not have enough juice in the tank for that after closing Game 3 of the Wild Card, stranger things have happened in October.

The Dodgers are one of the better teams in the league at hitting sliders and sinkers, but that isn’t saying much, because most teams are just really bad at it. To say the Dodgers are good at tackling Sale’s specialties would be generous; they’re excellent against a good old-fashioned fastball, though, which will probably be the best way to get to Sale. His three career starts at Dodger Stadium haven’t been up to his usual standard, which is right in line with its hitter-friendliness; if Thursday’s 21-pitch relief appearance disrupted his rest too much, he could be in for a very bumpy ride.

Blake Snell probably spent more time on Twitch than he did on the mound this year thanks to a plethora of injuries that limited him to nine regular-season starts. The first of those was against the Braves, with Snell giving up five runs (four earned) in three innings of work—then again, he’d just come off the injured list, and he went right back on it a couple days later. Upon his return in August, he allowed only five runs total across eight starts.

Within the limited sample size, all of his pitches have graded out favorably. His fastball—which he throws half the time—is the weakest among them, clocking in at -0.4 StuffPro, but that may be balanced out by the fact that Atlanta is somehow the worst team at hitting them. Only Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II have produced positive run value against four-seamers this year, with the offense doing much more of their damage on sliders and changeups. Sprinkle in the fact that he’s a lefty…