San Diego Padres (4) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (1), 8:30 PM ET

SDP: Robbie Ray (13-8, 3.59 ERA, 136 DRA-) & Johnny Wholestaff , MIL: Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 59 DRA-)

The Padres have one of the weakest collections of trustworthy playoff starters of any team this year—it’s really Michael King, Nick Pivetta sometimes, and that’s about it. Walker Buehler just isn’t that good at this point in his career for a postseason outing spanning more than nine-to-twelve batters. Mid-season trade acquisitions Casey Mize and Robbie Ray were supposed to be a part of that list, but recent trends have made that a dubious proposition these days. Mize’s ERA in San Diego resembled an airplane number; Ray walked nearly as many batters as he struck out.

None are enticing options, but the Padres will go with Ray for Game One. The 2021 AL Cy Young winner has had an excellent career spanning 13 years and counting. At his best he was one of the nastiest lefties in the game with his big fastball and trademark slider, overpowering enough to more than get by with an elevated walk rate. As his fastball regressed to average and his strikeout rate slips, however, Ray’s ever-present tendency to spray the ball is more likely to hurt him, and while he deserves credit for diversifying his approach and expanding his pitch mix—now featuring sinkers, curveballs and changeups—he’s very much dependent on getting chases and the Brewers won’t give him many. A disciplined lineup versus a semi-erratic lefty just doesn’t feel like a great matchup.

It is for that reason that the Padres are likely to go all-in on the strength of their team: the bullpen. San Diego’s vaunted relief corps worked 7 ⅔ scoreless innings against the high-octane Cubs offense in their Wild Card sweep; every single pitcher not named Michael King or Nick Pivetta is a possibility after two full days of rest. The Padres have a deep and varied bullpen, too, featuring lefties, swingmen, flyballers, sinkerballers, and Mason Miller. With King available on normal rest for Games Two and Five if needed, expect Craig Stammen to come into this game with his foot fully on the throttle if the game is tight at any point past the third inning.

The guy the Padres staff will share a mound with, meanwhile, recently wrapped up one of the most dominant pitching seasons of the modern era. Early in his prospectdom, Jacob Misiorowski was the latest specimen in a long line of “man, if this guy can throw strikes…etc”. But he was the extreme version, with the height and limbs of a basketball player, coming out of a JuCo with a triple-digit fastball, 10-grade command and limited on-mound experience…and while it took a while, lo and behold, the Miz has actually started to throw strikes. The results are as I described before; dominant falls woefully short as an adjective. He is, in my opinion undeniably, the greatest developmental win in Brewers history, a bold statement on the quality of the best front office and organization in the sport. The 100th-percentile outcome has come to fruition.

The results are horrifying for opposing batters. Misiorowski features perhaps the best fastball a starting pitcher has ever thrown: consistently 100+ mph with outlier extension down the mound boosting it even further, good life, and the upshot angle granted by the righty’s low three-quarters slot and low release. He threw it almost two-thirds of the time this season and garnered a whiff rate of—get ready—40.2%. 40.2%! And get this: batters swung through the Miz’s in-zone fastballs a third of the time! A heater thrown so often and so predictably located in the upper third shouldn’t be so dominant, but Misiorowski’s fastball doesn’t play by ordinary human rules.

Misiorowski also throws a variety of breaking pitches, skillfully molding their shape and purpose to put together a 96 mph cutter, a 92 mph slider, and an 88 mph curveball; batters hit .145 against them and whiffed 40% of the time. They feel like an afterthought at times as a viewer. They probably aren’t for batters, and they certainly won’t be in this game.

Milwaukee’s ace faced the Padres once this year in the middle of May, right as his eventual all-time great season was gaining steam—he tossed seven shutout innings, struck out 10, walked none, and scattered four singles. Misiorowski’s 0.802 WHIP in 2026 is the second-lowest in a full season since integration behind only the absolute peak of Pedro Martínez; he also just became the second starting pitcher in major-league history—and the first in well over a century—to allow fewer than five hits per nine innings. He led the majors in the aforementioned categories as well as strikeouts, ERA, FIP, DRA- (among starters), and is almost certainly going to sweep the Cy Young voting. The Brewers’ Game 1 starter in the NLDS has been, without question, the most dominant pitcher in the big leagues in 2026. The Padres will have the luxury of testing him first.