We’re down to the final days of the 2026 season. The leaders of only two divisions hold a lead of fewer than four games. The Padres and Diamondbacks are duking it out for the final National League Wild Card spot. The similar race in the American League is down to Cleveland, Toronto, and Texas. So, it would seem, the drama is limited.

But every team in line to play for October is looking ahead. In some cases, they’re easing up a bit, resting position players and lining up their starting pitchers for Wild Card and Division Series matchups. At the same time, though, they’re trying to win ballgames. They don’t want to let a comfortable lead slip through their fingers. And they’re avoiding heading into the tournament on a losing note. Last year, of the eight teams to advance to the Division Series, the only team with a losing record in September was the Tigers, who had a 7-17 faceplant during the month. They lost their Division Series to the Mariners, three games to two.

But you know which Division Series contender had the best record in September? That’d be the 18-7 Yankees, who were bounced by the eventual AL champion Blue Jays, three games to one.

The year before, the Yankees, at 15-11, tied for the second-worst record among the eight Division Series teams. They made it to the World Series. The year before that, neither the 15-14 Rangers nor the 15-13 Diamondbacks set the world on fire during the Championship Season’s final month, and they recorded the last out of the season. (Ketel Marte, strikeout looking, Josh Sborz on the mound.)

In this decade, the team with the best, the 23-7 2021 Giants, got eliminated in the Division Series. The team with the third-worst record, the 14-17 Phillies, advanced to the World Series against the Astros.

Does a team’s record in September, then, really matter? Does playing well carry into the playoffs? Does playing poorly (or, since these are all pretty good teams, mediocrely) spell doom?