New York Yankees (3) at Tampa Bay Rays (1), 8:00 PM EDT

NYY: RHP Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA, 66 DRA-), TB: RHP Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42 ERA, 108 DRA- but 5-2, 3.25 ERA, 112 DRA- with Tampa Bay)

There was a time when, if you’d said that Tampa Bay with Drew Rasmussen on the mound had beat the Yankees, who started Gerrit Cole, in the first game of a playoff series, you’d think the Yankees were in trouble. I mean, Rasmussen, fine pitcher, but Cole is the $36 million staff ace, right?

Yes, there was a time when you’d think that, but that time is not 2026. Rasmussen has established himself as one of game’s finest pitchers, healthy enough to no longer tack on the phrase “while healthy,” while Cole, in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, was no more than the club’s no.3, and that may be a slight to Ryan Weathers, Will Warren, and Carlos Rodón.

Schlittler was clearly the league’s best pitcher this year. The question isn’t whether he’ll win the Cy Young Award, it’s how high he’ll finish in the MVP vote. He led the league in ERA and DRA and was tied for first in FIP. He mowed down lefties (2.24 FIP, 68 DRA-) and righties (2.89 FIP, 65 DRA-). He was good at home (2.98 ERA, 2.70 FIP) and deadly on the road (1.16 ERA, 2.35 FIP). His fastball, cutter, sinker, and curve are all highly-rated by StuffPro. In three games against the Rays this year he struck out 21 and walked only three in 16 innings, allowing a 1.06 WHIP and 2.81 ERA. He is to Tampa Bay as Rasmussen is to the Yankees, but more so.

Peralta is more of a mystery. His traditional numbers following his deadline trade from the Mets indicate improvement—ERA from 4.99 to 3.25, WHIP from 1.48 to 1.01—but his FIP declined considerably less, from 4.51 to 3.87, and his DRA actually rose from 4.79 to 5.10, largely due to deserved base hits higher than what he surrendered. His BABIP allowed fell from .315 with the Mets to .235 with the Rays. Some of that is explained by the benefit of playing in front of the Rays’ defense instead of the Mets’, but not entirely. He had normal platoon splits, which suggests problems for a right-handed pitcher against the Yankees lineup, but this game is at Tropicana Field, not Yankee Stadium, and this is a Yankees lineup that managed only one hit against Rays right-handers two days ago. Still, the pitching matchup tonight solidly favors New York.