Chicago White Sox (4) at Cleveland Guardians (2), 5:00 PM EDT

CHW: LHP Anthony Kay (10-9, 4.44 ERA, 126 DRA-) followed by RHP Sean Burke (11-7, 3.34 ERA, 97 DRA-), CLE: RHP Gavin Williams (14-8, 3.76 ERA, 69 DRA-)

Once again, Chicago is starting a left-hander against the Guardians, whose OPS against southpaws was 31 points lower (.675) than against righties (.706). They’ll be happy to get three innings out of Kay, who threw an inning and a third in Saturday’s game. The plan is to follow him with Burke. He led the team in innings and WARP and started last Wednesday’s Wild Card clincher against the Astros, so he’d be on regular rest. He struck out eight of the 16 batters he faced in that game, which is good, but also gave up three homers, which isn’t. He had a 2.99 ERA and 91 DRA- through August 11, 4.66 ERA and 118 DRA- through the end of the season. He’ll be on a short leash, especially given how well-rested his bullpen is and will be (see below). His highest-rated pitch by StuffPro is his 95-mph four-seamer, and he adds in a sinker, a cutter, a slider, and a curve (and an occasional changeup). He faced the Guardians three times this year, in June, July, and September, and had success every time, allowing just three runs (two earned) over 17⅓ innings, striking out 30% of the batters he faced (Cleveland was the fifth-hardest-to-whiff team in the majors this year, 20.8%) and issuing only three free passes.

Williams led the league with 248 strikeouts and led the club with 5.6 WARP, fifth in the majors. Unlike Burke, he shows no sign of slowing down: 3.81 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 78 DRA- before the All-Star break, 3.68 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 55 DRA- after (though those figures would have been better had he not given up four runs in 3⅓ innings to the Royals in his last start). He faced Chicago four times this year, and Cleveland lost three of the games, though he performed well enough: 20⅓ innings, nine runs (3.98 ERA), .638 OPS allowed, 33 K%. He is susceptible to the longball, with the 35^th-highest HR/AB ratio among 141 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, though the homer-happy White Sox took him deep only twice. He throws three fastballs (fourseam, sinker, cutter) but his best pitches are his sweeper (45% whiff rate) and curve (38%). He had reverse platoon splits this year (.727 OPS and 4.19 FIP against righties, .621 OPS and 2.91 FIP against lefties), but DRA- disagrees (64 against righties, 72 against lefties). Against the White Sox, who don’t have big platoon splits themselves (right-handed batters had a .730 OPS, lefties .723) this doesn’t suggest any particular advantage or disadvantage.

Williams has pitched in one playoff game, starting the fourth game of the 2024 ALCS against the Yankees. He didn’t make it out of the third inning. But this is ancient history; the losing pitcher that night was Emmanuel Clase, for crying out loud.

These are two really large humans. Williams, nicknamed Big Rig, is listed at 6-foot-6, 250 pounds. Burke is 6-foot-6 and 240.