New York Yankees (4) at Tampa Bay Rays (1), 6:30 PM ET

NYY: RHP Gerrit Cole (10-9, 3.61 ERA, 93 DRA-), TB: RHP Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 75 DRA-)

In a top-heavy AL East, the two best teams in the league will square off in the ALDS. Leading the charge for the Yankees, fresh off a two-game dusting of the Red Sox, will be erstwhile ace Gerrit Cole. As evidenced by his 93 DRA-, Cole isn’t quite his former self after missing all of 2025 recovering from elbow surgery, but also as evidenced by that same DRA-, he remains an above-average arm. Part of what’s missing from his ace-level performance is his slider. He still throws it about 20% of the time—good for second in a mostly four-pitch mix—but that’s a steep drop-off from the 30% usage he hovered around in years past. He’s using it less often in part because it’s been less effective, with a 25.5% whiff rate this year, compared to a 40% mark at his peak. Declining whiff rates are the story of much of Cole’s season, as his fastball, changeup, and curve have also demonstrated less ability to miss bats than in prior years. Such is the life of a 35-year-old pitcher coming off an extended layoff, and it’s to Cole’s credit that he has remained an above-average starter despite the degradation. It also helps that he had such an elevated peak from which to decline.

Rasmussen was an ace in 2026. It requires a modified definition, but one to which the league has generally subscribed: He made 30+ starts for the second straight season, and upped his innings pitched from 150 last year to 172 in 2026. Ever since he arrived in Tampa, he’s been elite when healthy, and now he’s been healthy for consecutive campaigns. He’s something of a kitchen-sink pitcher, throwing up to seven offerings by our count—though only five 10% or more. Three of those are variations on the fastball, with a four-seam, sinker, and cutter accounting for more than 70% of his overall pitches. Rasmussen has mostly been the same high-quality pitcher in terms of results, but he is getting there a bit differently, with a new kick-change that he’s using around 14% of the time. That’s not a dominant part of his arsenal, but his previous high in changeup usage was 4%, way back in rookie season in Milwaukee. It’s effective too, earning whiffs over 35% of the time. The Yankees’ best lineup is the one in which they can go lefty heavy, so this particular pitch might see a lot of action tonight.