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A couple of months ago, I wrote about Yordan Alvarez’s Triple Crown chances. Time hasn’t been cruel in this case, and his Triple Crown bid looks even stronger now than it did then. Since I’ve gotten several requests for updates, it made sense to do a quick InstaGraphs post on the Triple Crown race probabilities. There’s a slight change for the probability charts you’ll see below. In order to make the percentages in the individual statistic tables add up to a clean 100%, I did not allow for ZiPS to include ties atop its simulated leaderboards when I ran the projections for that June 8 piece. In the latest run, I’ve factored in ties and expressed them in the tables as multiple players winning.

Back in June, Alvarez was second in the American League in batting average, looking up at Rays DH Yandy Díaz. Díaz continued to hit in June, but a .213 July knocked him out of the top spot, and he’s now 24 points behind Alvarez. Most of the other batting title contenders from June have also seen their averages decline, while Alvarez’s mark has actually increased, going from .316 to .322 entering play Monday. Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson has snuck into the second spot, with Díaz down to third and 22 points of average below the Astros slugger. Both Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.284) and Tigers rookie infielder Kevin McGonigle (.286) are very dangerous hitters and could go on a heater at any moment to make things interesting, but Alvarez leads them by over 30 points right now, and at this point in the season, it’s unlikely that they will catch him. Alvarez has also hit the required minimum number of plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, so no hitless at-bats would need to be added to get him to the 502-PA threshold, meaning a season-ending injury would freeze him at .322.

Alvarez (86) holds the RBI lead by six, so a first-place finish here isn’t guaranteed, but it still leaves him in an incredibly strong position. Ben Rice is 11 behind now, in part because the Yankees have put fewer men on base in front of him these last few months without three-time MVP Aaron Judge in their lineup. Meanwhile, reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner Nick Kurtz, who is currently on the IL with a strained right thumb, has fallen to 17 off the lead. A good chunk of the remaining risk to Alvarez’s RBI crown chances comes from a potential injury; even a minimum IL visit for him could leave Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso (75) or Tigers catcher Dillon Dingler (80) with room to swoop in.

The home run title is basically a three-player race at this point between Alvarez (35), Caminero (33), and Rice (32). Of the other four players in the top five as of June, three missed serious time due to injury and fell out of contention: Munetaka Murakami (26), Byron Buxton (25), and Judge (17). With Caminero and Rice hot on Alvarez’s heels, this category is going to be the most difficult one for him to win.

Alvarez’s Triple Crown probability is nearly the same as his odds to lead the league in home runs at this point; if he takes the home run crown, he almost certainly will have played well enough to hang onto the RBI lead and secure the batting title, too. ZiPS projects Alvarez now as having nearly two-in-three odds (66.5%) to win the AL Triple Crown.