Oddsmakers are essentially handing the National League Most Valuable Player award to Shohei Ohtani for the second straight year. 

Could you blame them? The Dodgers’ two-way star has been one of the best hitters in baseball – again – and he’s back on the pitcher’s mound. 

But Ohtani is not as much of a shoo-in as he was last season, and his competition is much stronger this time around.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has burst onto the scene as one of the best players in the sport, and he’s arguably been more valuable than Ohtani in 2025. 

The Cubs have also been the slightly better team, leading the Dodgers, who haven’t been the juggernaut they expected to be, by a half game in the standings heading into Saturday’s play. 

This begs the question, why is Ohtani, who is currently -1150 to win the award at FanDuel Sportsbook, so heavily favored over PCA, who has the second-best odds (+1000)?

Wins above replacement isn’t the end-all-be-all, but it paints a much different picture than Vegas odds boards. 

Crow-Armstrong currently leads Ohtani by a healthy margin in both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference WAR, even when taking into account the latter’s time on the bump.

Oddsmakers are probably anticipating Ohtani to bridge that gap now that he’s back pitching, but he hasn’t shown the ability to pitch deep into games at all, and time is running out to make a real impact there.

Ohtani has made seven starts and has thrown just 15 innings. 

Last time out, he had to leave the game early with cramps. 

The Japanese star’s hitting numbers are all down from the gaudy numbers he put up in 2024 as well. 

Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on from the on deck circle in the fourth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field on August 01, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. Getty Images

Ohtani is slashing .271/.376/.604, which are all a couple of ticks below last season, and his stolen bases are way down from 59 to just 13 this season. 

Unlike Ohtani, Crow-Armstrong is playing the field, and arguably doing it better than any player in baseball, making SportsCenter Top 10-worthy plays on a near-nightly basis in center field. 

His numbers at the plate aren’t all that far off from Ohtani’s, too, hitting .273/.309/.560 with 27 homers and 29 stolen bases. 

As mentioned, Ohtani’s team is doing him no favors either. 

After coming into this season with one of the highest win totals ever, the Dodgers are barely holding on in the NL West, sitting just three games up on the Padres, who had a massive trade deadline with the division in sight, heading into Saturday’s play. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates a home run against the Kansas City Royals during the eighth inning at Wrigley Field on July 23, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. Getty Images

How could voters give Ohtani the award if the Dodgers blew the division over the next two months?

Locked in a tough battle with the Brewers, Cubs may not win their division either, but they’ve outplayed their preseason projections, largely thanks to the emergence of Crow-Armstrong.

Lastly, we should expect some voter fatigue with Ohtani, who has won MVPs in three of the past four seasons, finishing second in the AL MVP voting in the only season he didn’t win the award. 

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Ohtani’s name value has him lapping the field, but the race between him and PCA is much closer than assumed after a deeper look. 

But if the season continues as is, will voters really reward him for this relatively underwhelming season with a rising superstar as the alternative?

Grab Crow-Armstrong to pull off the upset in the NL MVP race before the rest of the baseball world catches on. 

The play: Pete Crow-Armstrong to win NL MVP (+1000, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.