The Monster Energy SMX World Championship Playoffs begin this weekend, and with plenty of questions. Jett Lawrence, heretofore undefeated in SMX titles so far in his career, isn’t even going to race this time, due to injury. Haiden Deegan, dominant in the 250s in recent years, is now a 450 rider. And last year’s 250 champ, Jo Shimoda, starts way back in the seeding and is coming off an injury. Cole Davies just took two 250 titles, but several other riders in the class have to feel like they're just rounding into form. Momentum is swinging in weird directions right now. Let’s look at some of the biggest storylines.

Hunter Lawrence (1 Seed): On paper, the #1 seed would be an obvious title favorite. He was very close to being the champion of Monster Energy AMA Supercross, and is the new Pro Motocross Champion, and his main competitors in each are A) not even racing in the case of Jett Lawrence or B) have not raced in months in the case of Ken Roczen. That’s not how it actually works, though, because this big trophy and the money are not handed out based on what you already did. They’re handed out based on who executes best over the next three weeks, and Hunter will have to ramp it all up again. We also hear he’s banged up, with a sore wrist dating back to his Detroit Supercross whoops crash, which was aggravated with his fall off a cliff at the Unadilla National, and running into a downed Haiden Deegan in the first moto at Ironman Raceway. Also, mentally, he will have to find the adrenaline again after dealing with nail-biter title chases for the last eight months. Can he handle all that? Well, he bounced back from the supercross defeat with a 1-1 at the Pro Motocross opener. Does he start this Playoff the same way? If he does, he’s back to being the obvious favorite. We’ll have to see.

Ken Roczen (10 Seed): Kenny crushed the Playoffs in 2023 and gave Jett Lawrence all he could handle, even though he barely raced all summer. He was not as good in the post-season the last two years. Why? Ken explains it very simply: he had supercross injuries to deal with the last two years. This year he didn’t race any motocross at all but he’s coming in healthy. So he could be more like the 2023-Playoffs Ken this time. Sure, the May-September layoff would be a tad long for most, but this is Ken Roczen, who is still capable of waking up in the morning and going as fast as anyone on a dirt bike. As long as his heart is still in this, he can beat anyone. Wait, is his heart in it? Ken has yet to say if he's racing in 2027 or not. So this is tough to gauge. But let's just say Ken Roczen is still going to show up as the usual Ken Roczen. He will be good. The biggest worry for the new Monster Energy Supercross Champion might be the points, as his lack of motocross scores drop him to tenth-ranked in the standings, a full 13 points behind Hunter as the playoffs begin.

Jorge Prado (2 Seed): Ranked second in the combined regular-season standings, Prado also carries the momentum of that Ironman 1-1. He has looked much more like the MXGP-Champ level Prado at the last few rounds of Pro Motocross, mostly because KTM made some requested changes to his bike. We don’t know if that translates over to a hybrid track, but we do know Jorge is riding a wave. He has to feel like he’s just finally back to his old self, and that makes him dangerous. Jorge has never raced a Playoff race before, but MXGP throws everything at riders, including man-made tracks at many of the events outside of Europe, so he can adapt quickly. Look out.

Cooper Webb (3 Seed): Webb has only been good, not great, in previous Playoff seasons. Still, this is the first time he’s entered the playoffs following a full Pro Motocross campaign, and that ended with smiles with his Ironman podium. He’s all pumped up on the Monster Energy FIM Motocross of Nations, too. Maybe we see more from Coop now?

Haiden Deegan (7 Seed): Deegs dominated Pro Motocross in his 250 days, and eventually became just as tough in supercross, but you can argue that Playoffs have been the best discipline for him. He’s been ridiculous at these races, often coming from outside the top ten to first with time to spare. That was in the 250 class, of course, and now everyone knows his first Pro Motocross campaign on a 450 ended without a moto win. So 250 success doesn't guarantee 450 success, but there’s reason to think he will have a better shot at winning here.

Cole Davies (1 Seed): Is it possible that there’s no longer a reason to bench race about the 250 class, and Cole Davies is just “the guy” now for the foreseeable future? His case with two titles already is a good one, but there are too many 250 guys with momentum to just assume Davies will dominate. He won’t get to use his whoop speed here, but he didn’t need that in Pro Motocross. He will get to take advantage of his starts, which have been insane for the last few months. Cole is gonna be tough to beat, we know that, but in a three-round series anything can happen.

Jo Shimoda (12 Seed): Here’s someone that knows how quickly the Playoffs can change. Haiden Deegan had the dial set to domination last year until Levi Kitchen took him out at the second race, and Jo Shimoda stepped in to clean up the mess. This year Jo is in a tough spot, as an ill-timed collarbone break just as he was getting going ended his Pro Motocross title hopes. It also torpedoed his rankings, as he sits just 12th as the playoffs begin, already 15 points behind Davies. Jo always does well in the Playoffs, though. Can he get some luck and get back in this?

Levi Kitchen (2 Seed): Here’s what’s wild about sports. Just a few weeks ago Levi looked like the fastest 250 rider of all, and he had a good shot at the Pro Motocross Championship. Ironman was brutal, though, so it’s almost like Levi has been forgotten about as a contender. If he can get himself back mentally after that one, and isn’t too banged up from a multitude of crashes, he could be right back to being the fastest guy. Starts will really matter in these races, and Levi hasn’t had too many good ones in a long time. He actually was improving his starts toward the end of Pro Motocross, though. Can you imagine how different his year looks if he rallies right now?

Ryder DiFrancesco (3 Seed): Wait, Ryder D is the 3 seed? Yes, yes, he is! That’s how consistent Ryder has been indoors and out  this year, but he doesn’t have a win, so that makes it look different. Ryder D is soclose to jumping to that next level, the confidence of a win could do it. Sky is the limit after that.

Chance Hymas (4 Seed): Hot at the right time is Chance Hymas, who found his real self at the end of Pro Motocross with his best races of the year. Chance has never really raced the Playoffs healthy, so it’s hard to know how these tracks and events will work for him. If he’s at Budds Creek and Ironman level, though, he’ll be right in this.

Julien Beaumer: (5 Seed): Julian told us that, following his huge back injury last year, he only expected to use Pro Motocross to get back into racing, and peak for the Playoffs. It just so happened that his Pro Motocross campaign went much better than expected, as he won two races and became a borderline title contender. As good as that was, he still expects to be at his best for the Playoffs. He’s 100 percent focused on the SMX World Championship, and that’s key. Honestly, all the other guys not named Davies will need to use these races to prove the 250 class is still up for grabs. Is this Cole Davies’ world? The time is now to stop that conversation, and there are quite a few riders that are ready.