One of the most talked-about trade candidates this summer has been Mason Miller of the Padres. Actually lining up a trade that makes sense is a challenge for a few reasons.

For one thing, the Padres aren’t clear sellers. A recent five-game win streak has pushed their record to 55-53. They are the top National League team outside the playoff picture. They are only 1.5 games behind the Diamondbacks and Phillies. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller is one of the most aggressive executives in the game, if not the most aggressive, and surely doesn’t want to tear down the roster when the club is that close. Reporting from a few days ago suggested the Padres wanted to act as buyers, even when they had a 51-53 record.

Trading Miller, or another reliever, could still make sense even if the Padres are buying. The payroll in San Diego has been squeezed in recent years. Due to limited financial flexibility, Preller has leaned heavily on trading from his farm system. That’s how Miller came to town, as Leo De Vries and several other prospects were sent to the A’s last summer. The Padres also gave up multiple prospects in trades for Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Jason Adam, Tanner Scott/Bryan Hoeing, Ramón Laureano/Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin in recent years.

Due to all that trading, the farm system is in rough shape. Baseball America‘s most recent rankings, which came before this summer’s draft, put San Diego’s farm dead last. FanGraphs currently has them in the basement. Before the season started, both MLB Pipeline and ESPN also had the Padres last.

Preller might still find a way to spin the prospects he does have into some upgrades, but trading from the major league bullpen is arguably a better path. The San Diego relief corps has been one of the strongest in the league, with a collective 3.70 ERA. That puts them behind just five teams. In addition to Miller, they have been getting strong results from Adrián Morejón, Jeremiah Estrada, Yuki Matsui and Bradgley Rodriguez. They could theoretically use someone in that group to bolster their rotation or lineup while still having a strong bullpen overall.

Any of those relievers could be used in this way but Miller has the most value. His on-field performance is elite, with a 0.79 earned run average this year, backed up by a massive 49.4% strikeout rate. His 46.5% ground ball rate is also good and his 8.7% walk rate around average. On top of that, he is making just $4MM this year and can be retained for three more seasons via arbitration.

Any contender would want Miller but they would have to give up something the Padres would want, which should be starting pitching. The Padres essentially have one starter right now in Michael King. The rest of the rotation behind him currently consists of Griffin Canning, Walker Buehler, JP Sears and Germán Márquez. Sears is the only one in that group with an ERA south of 5.00 and he probably can’t stay below that line. He had a 7.92 ERA in Triple-A before being called up and his current success is thanks to a .241 batting average on balls in play and 73.1% strand rate. Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta are on the injured list and trying to get healthy but it’s unclear if either of them can help the Friars this year. Next year’s rotation is also shaky, since King could opt out of his deal this offseason. Pivetta also has an opt-out, though an injury provision in his deal may convert that to a $14MM club option.

The Padres would probably look to trade Miller for a package headlined by a controllable starter who could immediately slot next to King in a playoff rotation. The other pieces could perhaps be leveraged to get yet another starter. We saw the Padres do a version of this a few years ago. They needed multiple arms but had a tight budget, so they traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees. They got King in that deal and immediately put him in the rotation. They also nabbed prospect Drew Thorpe, who was promptly flipped to the White Sox as the headliner in the Cease deal.

Since Miller is controlled for three more years, it’s possible a retooling club could acquire him, but he should have more value to a club contending now. A huge part of his appeal is helping to lock down important games in September and October. A club who can use Miller for four playoff races should value him higher than a club who is focused on next year. There’s also the possibility that he gets hurt between now and the 2027 playoffs, which could dissuade retooling clubs from paying big for him now.

That leaves the best fits in a Miller trade as those who are currently contending and yet have controllable playoff-caliber starters to spare as a headliner. Ideally, they would also have a strong farm system to pad out the trade with other pieces for the Padres to bolster their own system, or perhaps flip for another starter as they did with Thorpe/Cease. It’s hard to find teams who fit that description, since so many are looking for rotation upgrades rather than overflowing with arms. Who could do it? Let’s try to find some matches.