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The All-Star break affords a good opportunity to run a full update of the ZiPS projections, since the lack of action allows me, the system’s flesh-and-blood creator, the time to refresh every speck of data that ZiPS uses before new games push over my tower of dominoes.

The ZiPS projected standings are the product of a million seasonal simulations; there’s a lot of PC power and a unfortunate amount of linear algebra involved. In order to get a better estimate of the upside and downside of a team, ZiPS takes the important additional step of simulating the roster itself before it ever considers a single game on the schedule. To illustrate, in most of the million simulations, Yordan Alvarez continues to treat opposing pitchers in a rather rude fashion, and sometimes, he even wins the Triple Crown. But in some simulations, he’s merely OK, while in others, he misses time due to injury. In a small percentage of those runs, the injury proves significant and prematurely ends his season. When a player is injured in a ZiPS simulation, the computer fills in the depth charts based on who is left standing. While this isn’t a perfect approach, the overall effect is to give us a range of expectations for the Astros, allowing us to peek as far as as we can into the future until the future actually arrives.

Once ZiPS has a simulated distribution of a team’s roster strength, it simulates the results of the rest of the season a million times. Below are the updated ZiPS projected standings through the games played on July 12. They do not contain information about the last night’s Phillies-Mets game, but rest assured that the 2026 Mets are probably still doomed whatever happened. We’ll start our look in the American League, beginning with the East:

It might not feel like it some of the time, but ZiPS still sees the Yankees as a strong contender, even when it assumes that the earliest Aaron Judge can return is in late August or early September. It really shouldn’t be shocking; this team is second in the AL in runs scored and has allowed the fewest. ZiPS is a lot less skeptical about the Rays than it was before the season began, but it still doesn’t see them as being better than the rest of the pack, with their second-place standing due largely to the games already played.

ZiPS sees the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles all finishing somewhere around .500, but there’s still about a one-in-five chance that one of those teams will break out a bit in the second half and win the division. They’re all nearly coin flips to make the playoffs as well, as the AL is pretty mid, and it doesn’t look like any team that wins 90 games is going to fail to secure at least a Wild Card spot.

ZiPS remains unconvinced that the White Sox are this good, but they’re certainly an interesting team these days, with strong spots on the roster that aren’t just me being nice about it. To go from a 41-win season in 2024 to already having 50 wins banked this year is a really impressive achievement even if they ultimately fall short of the playoffs. The Guardians’ offense is probably better than the AL-worst it’s forecast for when projecting the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a whole lot of upside, even if José Ramírez makes a quick return from injury.

ZiPS, along with some of the other projection systems, was criticized this offseason for thinking that the Twins were merely a mediocre team rather than an atrocious one. Well, in a fantastic win for the forces of excitedly mediocre sunny optimism, Minnesota has in fact been a middling team this year. I certainly didn’t have “Twins leading the AL in runs scored” on my bingo card. But the pitching is very thin after you get past the top few starters and relievers, so it’s still fair to say that this isn’t an especially dangerous team.

The Tigers could be a potent force in the playoffs, as any club with the ability to pitch Tarik Skubal a bunch of times would be, but even with a 22-14 record since the start of June, they’re still in a bit of a hole. Being 3 1/2 games behind a playoff spot may not sound like much, but it is when you have six or seven teams in roughly the same position as you, most of which are a little bit ahead. I think that the Tigers will end up trading Skubal, given that this looks like a seller’s market. I liked Kansas City as a Wild Card contender coming into the season, but they’re too many games back, and have too many teams to leapfrog; they ought to throw in the towel on 2026.

ZiPS still thinks the Mariners are the AL West’s best team, but it’s looking like there’s a pretty good chance that 85 wins will be enough to take the division, and that’s a number that both the Rangers and Astros are good enough to hit. This is one of two divisions in baseball where ZiPS thinks there’s at least a 5% chance of the eventual winner having a losing record.

A lot of people, including me, thought the Athletics were just interesting enough to sneak into the Wild Card race, but the 6 1/2-game gap they have to close is a lot bigger than it sounds given that at least some of the underperforming contenders ahead of them will play better in the second half. The team’s pitching has been about as awful as expected, with a 4.95 FIP and an ERA uncomfortably into the fives, and the offense, which was supposed to carry them, has been underwhelming as well.

The only saving grace for the Angels is that they’re terrible enough that the team has to actually realize that they’re sellers. When you’re tied for the worst record in baseball, it’s hard to imagine yourself as a contender, like the Angels appear to do every winter.

Moving on to the National League, starting with the East:

Since the beginning of June, the Braves have gone 15-20, which has been enough for the Phillies to get back into the race, with the Marlins right there behind them. ZiPS sees the Phillies as easily the most dangerous of the three teams, and right now, Atlanta’s edge in the divisional odds comes down to the tiebreaker and the 5-1 record they’ve already banked against Philadelphia this year. Also, I wrote the word “tiebreaker” in an article about baseball, so now I’m a little sad.

The Nationals making the playoffs was always going to be a tough sell, but there’s lot to like about this team. ZiPS has always been fond of James Wood, but he’s now at the point where the system sees him as a top-five position player in WAR over the next five years. The Nats still need a lot more pitching to be a serious contender, and they could stand to fill in some of the positions around their offensive core, but they’re headed in the right direction.

The Mets are probably better than this, but even if they start meeting their projections, it’s likely too late for them to make the playoffs without a bonafide miracle. David Stearns ought to be feeling some heat. While a number of the moves he made that haven’t worked out looked quite reasonable at the time, and the Mets have had some real injury issues, at the end of the day, you’re defined by the results.

The Brewers aren’t yet slam dunks to take the division, but they’re in a very strong position and have the highest projected playoff probability of any team that isn’t the Dodgers. The Cubs are the team most likely to threaten them over the next two and a half months, but while the Cubs’ offense and defense are both elite gold status members, the pitching flies coach. They’re one of the teams I’m most watching at the deadline to make some crazy play for a Skubal.

The Pirates and Cardinals both remain realistic Wild Cards, though they probably wish they played in the AL this year given that grabbing one of those spots looks a good deal easier in the junior circuit. Both teams have real holes they could address at the deadline, but I’m honestly not sure either will be all that aggressive.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how the Reds still had time to get back into the playoffs if they went on a run going into the All-Star break. They did not do that, and have faded to clear also-ran status; they ought to be sellers this deadline.

Well, 2026 isn’t the year that someone’s going to push the Dodgers off the NL West thrown. The Padres made it interesting for a bit, and their bullpen has been terrific, but the team just hasn’t scored runs, and Michael King has been the only starting pitcher they can trust. I guess the Friars could go full 19th-century with King, where they tell him it’s OK to dial the fastball back to 85 and then start him every game, but I guarantee that he’d opt-out after cosplaying as Old Hoss Radbourn for two months, even in a lockout offseason. The Diamondbacks also remain a contender, but they’ll need to get some offense and a healthy starting pitcher or two, and I’m not sure they really see this roster as one for which you push in all your chips.

Logan Webb is better than his season so far, and he and Robbie Ray make a solid one-two punch, but the Giants are too far back to be anything but sellers this month. The Rockies aren’t a good team, but as with the White Sox last year, there are interesting guys on their roster, and their games aren’t all lifeless, 11-2 snoozers. ZiPS thinks they have a really good shot to avoid triple-digit losses, something they haven’t managed since 2022.

The odds are lower than a few weeks ago, but there’s still a real chance that the AL has at least one team make the playoffs with a losing record. One or two Wild Card teams could be losing teams, and there’s about a 10% chance that either the AL Central or AL West winner will finish below .500. What’s more, all three NL division champs may end up with better records than any team in the AL.

Now it’s time for reality to mess up the projections. But, hey, that’s the fun part of baseball!