Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for well over a decade.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

Service time data is not finalized and the Super Two cutoff is not yet official. This post will be updated if new information becomes available. MLBTR contributor Ethan Hullihen estimated the line at two years and 134 days (2.134) a few weeks ago. His current projections put the line at 2.133. If correct, this would be good news for Tyron Guerrero and Jordan Beck, as both would just qualify at 2.133.

It’s worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables. Contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion, with “leave it” being a non-tender in such instances. That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

It’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. The subscription includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our payroll tracker, contract tracker, agency database and GM tracker.

The projections:

Arizona Diamondbacks (4)

• Lars Nootbaar (5.076): $6.3MM
• Pavin Smith (4.144): $2.5MM
• Gabriel Moreno (4.061): $6.1MM
• Ryne Nelson (4.020): $3.4MM

Athletics (4)

• Shea Langeliers (4.051): $8.7MM
• Luis Medina (3.146): $1.4MM
• Zack Gelof (3.050): $2.9MM
• Hogan Harris (2.146): $2.3MM

Atlanta Braves (6)

• Dylan Lee (4.150): $4.2MM
• James Karinchak (4.130): $1.1MM
• Joey Wentz (3.166): $900K
• Michael Grove (3.122): $1MM
• Luke Williams (3.070): $900K
• Bryce Elder (3.069): $4MM

Baltimore Orioles (7)

• Leody Taveras (5.031): $3.7MM
• Félix Bautista (5.000): $2.4MM
• Codi Heuer (4.059): $1.1MM
• Gunnar Henderson (4.036): $14.1MM
• Albert Suárez (3.159): $1.1MM
• Jordan Westburg (3.098): $1.5MM
• Colton Cowser (3.043): $2.2MM

Boston Red Sox (17)

• Tanner Houck (5.100): $4.1MM
• Johan Oviedo (5.079): $1.8MM
• Adley Rutschman (5.000): $9.1MM
• Jarren Duran (4.155): $11.1MM
• Eli White (4.140): $1.4MM
• Kutter Crawford (4.136): $2.8MM
• Connor Wong (4.079): $2MM
• Romy González (4.044): $1.8MM
• Triston Casas (4.032): $1.7MM
• Andruw Monasterio (3.099): $1.6MM
• Zack Kelly (3.080): $800K
• Greg Weissert (3.079): $1.2MM
• Wilyer Abreu (3.041): $4.6MM
• Erik Miller (3.000): $1.5MM
• Justin Slaten (3.000): $1.2MM
• Jahmai Jones (2.148): $900K
• Tyron Guerrero (2.133): $1.1MM

Chicago Cubs (12)

• Justin Steele (5.143): $6.8MM
• Edward Cabrera (4.147): $4.8MM
• Braxton Garrett (4.006): $1.6MM
• Javier Assad (3.167): $2.3MM (Cubs hold a $3.3MM option)
• Tyler Austin (3.151): $1.3MM
• Miguel Amaya (3.130): $1.7MM
• Gabriel Arias (3.124): $1.3MM
• Ryan Rolison (3.109): $1.1MM
• Ethan Roberts (3.080): $800K
• Michael Busch (3.045): $5.4MM
• Ben Brown (2.169): $1.3MM
• Daniel Palencia (2.154): $1.2MM

Chicago White Sox (6)

• Joey Bart (5.020): $2.9MM
• Huascar Brazobán (3.170): $1.6MM
• Brenton Doyle (3.161): $3.6MM
• Miguel Vargas (3.101): $5.4MM
• Chris Murphy (3.055): $900K
• Jordan Leasure (2.161): $1MM

Cincinnati Reds (12)

• Tejay Antone (5.145): $1.5MM
• Nick Lodolo (5.000): $5.7MM
• Graham Ashcraft (4.130): $2.2MM
• Tony Santillan (4.099): $2.5MM
• Spencer Steer (4.035): $5.7MM
• JJ Bleday (4.013): $4.8MM
• Matt McLain (3.140): $4MM
• Brandon Williamson (3.139): $1.3MM
• Andrew Abbott (3.119): $4.5MM
• Elly De La Cruz (3.118): $7.9MM
• Oswaldo Cabrera (3.069): $1.1MM
• Dane Myers (3.037): $1.5MM

Cleveland Guardians (13)

• Jo Adell (5.085): $9.6MM
• Steven Kwan (5.000): $11.3MM
• Colin Holderman (4.108): $2.3MM
• David Fry (3.154): $1.9MM
• Matt Festa (3.153): $1.5MM
• Patrick Bailey (3.136): $2.3MM
• Gavin Williams (3.103): $4.8MM
• Blake Perkins (3.075): $900K
• Hunter Gaddis (3.073): $2.2MM
• Tim Herrin (3.058): $1.3MM
• Brayan Rocchio (3.001): $3.1MM
• Cade Smith (3.000): $5.5MM
• Slade Cecconi (2.155): $2MM

Colorado Rockies (6)

• Jimmy Herget (5.069): $2.4MM
• Jake McCarthy (4.074): $4.6MM
• Ryan Feltner (4.071): $3.8MM
• Brennan Bernardino (3.153): $1.6MM
• Hunter Goodman (3.010): $6.2MM
• Jordan Beck (2.133): $1.2MM

Detroit Tigers (11)

• Will Vest (5.100): $4.4MM
• Zach McKinstry (5.099): $5MM
• Matt Vierling (5.026): $3.7MM
• Riley Greene (4.110): $9.3MM
• Spencer Torkelson (4.076): $7.7MM
• Kerry Carpenter (4.057): $4.1MM
• Tyler Holton (4.047): $2.4MM
• Beau Brieske (4.007): $1.5MM
• Reese Olson (3.123): $1.5MM
• Wenceel Pérez (3.000): $1.4MM
• Parker Meadows (2.169): $1MM

Houston Astros (11)

• Isaac Paredes (5.160): $15MM (Astros hold a $13.35MM club option)
• Peter Lambert (5.069): $4.6MM
• Jeremy Peña (5.000): $13.1MM
• Jake Meyers (4.161): $3.6MM
• Hunter Brown (4.035): $6.8MM
• Yainer Diaz (4.035): $6.3MM
• Hayden Wesneski (3.170): $1.8MM
• Nick Allen (3.164): $1.8MM
• Bennett Sousa (3.156): $1.3MM
• Taylor Trammell (3.143): $1.5MM
• Ronel Blanco (3.100): $1.4MM

Kansas City Royals (11)

• Kyle Isbel (5.043): $3.5MM
• Nate Pearson (5.042): $2MM
• Nick Mears (5.022): $2.2MM
• Alex Lange (4.145): $1.7MM
• Daniel Lynch IV (4.136): $1.8MM
• Michael Massey (4.068): $3.2MM
• Anthony Gose (4.019): $1.1MM
• James McArthur (3.150): $800K
• Randy Dobnak (3.148): $2.3MM
• Lucas Erceg (3.125): $2.3MM
• Alec Marsh (3.078): $1.1MM

Los Angeles Angels (11)

• Reid Detmers (4.159): $7.5MM
• Jose Siri (4.150): $2.3MM
• Josh Lowe (4.075): $3.6MM
• Tyler Heineman (4.066): $1.5MM
• Tayler Saucedo (4.043): $1.5MM
• Zach Neto (3.170): $9.8MM
• Grayson Rodriguez (3.129): $2.1MM
• Ben Joyce (3.075): $1.1MM
• Nolan Schanuel (3.045): $3MM
• Oswald Peraza (3.014): $1.4MM
• Sam Bachman (2.149): $1.1MM

Los Angeles Dodgers (6)

• Brock Stewart (5.093): $1.8MM
• Jake Cousins (4.091): $1MM
• Alex Call (3.161): $1.9MM
• Emmet Sheehan (3.063): $2.1MM
• Gavin Stone (3.034): $1.2MM
• Andy Pages (2.155): $4.9MM

Miami Marlins (11)

• Anthony Bender (5.153): $3.4MM
• Andrew Nardi (4.053): $1.1MM
• Max Meyer (3.166): $2.7MM
• Calvin Faucher (3.156): $2.9MM
• Eury Pérez (3.113): $3.2MM
• Otto Lopez (3.109): $5.4MM
• Tyler Zuber (3.104): $900K
• Esteury Ruiz (3.064): $1.3MM
• Xavier Edwards (3.034): $3.5MM
• Victor Vodnik (3.024): $1.4MM
• Kyle Stowers (3.012): $3.2MM

Milwaukee Brewers (16)

• Andrew Vaughn (5.142): $8.5MM
• William Contreras (5.112): $14.6MM (Brewers hold $14.5MM club option)
• Bryse Wilson (5.049): $1.1MM
• Trevor Megill (5.002): $8MM
• Angel Zerpa (4.082): $1.3MM
• Garrett Mitchell (4.040): $2.7MM
• Brice Turang (3.165): $9.5MM
• Akil Baddoo (3.082): $1.3MM
• DL Hall (3.074): $1MM
• Sal Frelick (3.072): $2.4MM
• Joey Ortiz (3.030): $2.4MM
• Bo Naylor (3.014): $1.5MM
• David Hamilton (3.011): $1.6MM
• Grant Anderson (3.007): $1MM
• Jared Koenig (2.158): $900K
• Quinn Priester (2.134): $1.3MM

Minnesota Twins (10)

• Anthony Banda (5.135): $2.3MM
• Dean Kremer (5.107): $6.5MM
• Bailey Ober (5.093): $6.9MM
• Joe Ryan (5.033): $9.6MM (current deal has $13MM mutual option for 2027 with $100K buyout)
• Trevor Larnach (5.014): $6.3MM
• Royce Lewis (4.139): $5.1MM
• Cole Sands (4.017): $1.3MM
• Tommy Nance (3.165): $1.2MM
• Kody Clemens (3.134): $3.6MM
• Taj Bradley (3.097): $4.5MM

New York Mets (10)

• Cionel Pérez (5.139): $1.2MM
• Tylor Megill (5.031): $2.5MM
• Christopher Morel (4.080): $2.1MM
• Francisco Alvarez (3.164): $4.1MM
• Reed Garrett (3.143): $1.3MM
• Austin Warren (3.137): $1.2MM
• Mark Vientos (3.102): $2.4MM
• Brett Baty (3.088): $2.5MM
• Cristian Pache (3.086): $800K
• Dedniel Núñez (3.074): $900K

New York Yankees (9)

• Clarke Schmidt (5.148): $4.5MM
• Luis García Jr. (5.142): $11MM
• Ryan Weathers (4.066): $3.1MM
• Fernando Cruz (4.035): $2.3MM
• José Caballero (3.170): $3.7MM
• Anthony Volpe (3.142): $4MM
• Luis Gil (3.119): $2.3MM
• Heliot Ramos (3.103): $3.2MM
• Austin Wells (3.031): $2.6MM

Philadelphia Phillies (9)

• Garrett Stubbs (5.139): $1MM
• Brandon Marsh (5.078): $8.3MM
• Jhoan Duran (5.000): $10.9MM
• Bryson Stott (5.000): $9.2MM
• Tanner Banks (4.092): $1.4MM
• Derek Hill (4.040): $1.5MM
• Rafael Marchán (4.006): $1MM
• Bryan De La Cruz (3.148): $1.2MM
• Orion Kerkering (3.010): $1.5MM

Pittsburgh Pirates (10)

• Yohan Ramírez (4.135): $1.5MM
• Oneil Cruz (4.110): $6.3MM
• Carmen Mlodzinski (3.081): $1.6MM
• Jared Triolo (3.071): $1.8MM
• Endy Rodríguez (3.044): $1.2MM
• Henry Davis (3.039): $1.4MM
• Nick Gonzales (3.018): $3.1MM
• Jared Jones (3.000): $2.1MM
• Paul Skenes (3.000): $7.2MM
• Spencer Horwitz (2.152): $2.5MM

San Diego Padres (8)

• Gavin Sheets (5.076): $6.5MM
• Luis Campusano (4.003): $1.7MM
• Mason Miller (3.166): $8.1MM
• Freddy Fermin (3.165): $2.6MM
• Bryan Hoeing (3.133): $800K
• JP Sears (3.108): $2.8MM
• Jeremiah Estrada (3.069): $1.3MM
• Jhony Brito (2.138): $800K

San Francisco Giants (9)

• Sam Hentges (5.157): $2MM
• Andrew Knizner (5.139): $1MM
• Camilo Doval (5.071): $6.6MM
• Jason Foley (4.150): $2.3MM
• Rowan Wick (4.114): $800K
• Ryan Walker (3.050): $1.6MM
• Casey Schmitt (3.035): $2.5MM
• José Buttó (2.168): $800K
• Randy Rodríguez (2.148): $800K

Seattle Mariners (15)

• Logan Gilbert (5.144): $15.4MM
• Brendan Donovan (5.000): $6.1MM
• Gabe Speier (5.000): $3.3MM
• George Kirby (4.151): $9.8MM
• Patrick Wisdom (4.135): $1.1MM
• Matt Brash (4.121): $1.8MM
• Luke Raley (4.106): $3.1MM
• Bryce Miller (3.153): $3.9MM (Mariners hold a $6.075MM option with $15K buyout)
• Bryan Woo (3.121): $5.2MM
• Eduard Bazardo (3.118): $1.5MM
• Jose A. Ferrer (3.094): $1.6MM
• Michael Rucker (3.069): $800K
• Dominic Canzone (3.014): $3MM
• Cooper Criswell (2.143): $900K
• Carlos Vargas (2.140): $800K

St. Louis Cardinals (9)

• Andre Pallante (4.145): $7.5MM
• Nolan Gorman (4.055): $3.4MM
• Alec Burleson (4.029): $8.3MM
• Matthew Liberatore (3.144): $3.6MM
• Masyn Winn (3.045): $3.3MM
• Jordan Walker (3.044): $5.1MM
• Iván Herrera (3.034): $5.5MM
• Pedro Pagés (2.166): $1.3MM
• Kyle Leahy (2.140): $2.8MM

Tampa Bay Rays (17)

• Shane McClanahan (5.158): $6.6MM
• Nick Madrigal (5.137): $1.1MM
• Tyler Wells (5.132): $4MM
• Cole Sulser (5.096): $1.9MM
• Taylor Walls (5.092): $3.5MM (Rays hold a $3.1MM club option)
• Griffin Jax (5.091): $5.7MM
• Garrett Cleavinger (5.060): $3.7MM
• Nick Fortes (4.149): $3.4MM
• Bryan Baker (4.049): $4.1MM
• Ryan Pepiot (4.005): $3.1MM
• Kevin Kelly (3.156): $2.6MM
• Richie Palacios (3.156): $2MM
• Edwin Uceta (3.150): $1.5MM
• Manuel Rodríguez (3.139): $900K
• Jonny DeLuca (3.085): $1.7MM
• Jesse Scholtens (3.032): $900K
• Jonathan Aranda (3.030): $4.1MM

Texas Rangers (10)

• MacKenzie Gore (5.000): $8.7MM
• Jake Burger (4.127): $6.9MM
• Ezequiel Durán (4.053): $4MM
• Josh Jung (4.027): $5.2MM
• Logan O’Hoppe (3.171): $3.1MM
• Cody Bradford (3.086): $1.3MM
• Robert Garcia (3.086): $1.1MM
• Wyatt Langford (3.000): $3.3MM
• Evan Carter (2.170): $1.7MM
• Jacob Latz (2.170): $3MM

Toronto Blue Jays (8)

• Ernie Clement (4.168): $7.6MM
• José Soriano (4.121): $5.6MM
• Josh Smith (4.116): $3.7MM
• Bowden Francis (3.098): $1.3MM
• Spencer Arrighetti (2.166): $1.9MM
• Louis Varland (2.163): $3.8MM
• Nathan Lukes (2.145): $2.1MM
• Davis Schneider (2.142): $1.3MM

Washington Nationals (8)

• Josiah Gray (5.075): $1.6MM
• CJ Abrams (4.130): $10.2MM
• Richard Lovelady (4.052): $1.7MM
• Jake Bird (3.169): $1.3MM
• Jake Irvin (3.152): $3.4MM
• Ken Waldichuk (3.150): $1MM
• Jacob Young (3.037): $2.3MM
• Mitchell Parker (2.167): $1.1MM

Photo courtesy of Pablo Robles, Imagn Images