The Padres find themselves in a familiar spot. They just wrapped another season that was good but not good enough. They have a decent roster but a huge chunk of the payroll is tied up in the core while the rotation has a number of holes.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Manny Machado, 3B: $280MM through 2033 (including $35MM of signing bonus still owed)
• Fernando Tatis Jr., IF/OF: $266MM through 2034
• Xander Bogaerts, SS: $175MM through 2033
• Jackson Merrill, OF: $135MM through 2034 (including $6MM of signing bonus still owed)
• Michael King, RHP: $66MM through 2028 (including $8MM of signing bonus still owed)
• Jake Cronenworth, IF/OF: $48MM through 2030
• Joe Musgrove, RHP: $20MM through 2027
• Yuki Matsui, LHP: $13.5MM through 2028 (Matsui may opt out after 2026 or 2027)
• Sung-Mun Song, IF: $12MM through 2029 (including remaining signing bonus and buyout on 2030 mutual option; can opt out after 2028)
• Wandy Peralta, LHP: $4.45MM player option for 2027

Option Decisions

• Michael King, RHP: $28MM player option with $5MM buyout; deal also has $30MM player option for 2028
• Nick Pivetta, RHP: $14MM club option (deal also includes $18MM player option for 2028)
• Yuki Matsui, LHP: may opt out of remaining two years and $13.5MM; can also opt out after 2027
• Miguel Andujar, IF/OF: $8MM mutual option with $2.9MM buyout
• Lucas Giolito, RHP: $8MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout
• Griffin Canning, RHP: $5MM mutual option with $1.8MM buyout
• Wandy Peralta, LHP: $4.45MM player option for 2027
• Kyle Hart, LHP: $2.5MM club option with $200K buyout

Additional Commitments

• $750K buyout on 2027 mutual option for RHP Germán Márquez

2027 financial commitments: $180.1MM
Total future commitments: $1.0271 billion

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Gavin Sheets (5.076): $6.5MM
• Luis Campusano (4.003): $1.7MM
• Mason Miller (3.166): $8.1MM
• Freddy Fermin (3.165): $2.6MM
• Bryan Hoeing (3.133): $800K
• JP Sears (3.108): $2.8MM
• Jeremiah Estrada (3.069): $1.3MM
• Jhony Brito (2.138): $800K

Non-tender candidates: Hoeing, Sears

Free Agents

• Robbie Ray, Ramon Laureano, Walker Buehler, Ty France, Luis Rengifo, Austin Hays, Jason Adam, Casey Mize, Adrián Morejón, Miguel Andujar, Lucas Giolito, Griffin Canning

The Padres had a flat 48-48 record in the first half. They got hot at a good time, going 43-23 in the second half. That got them the top Wild Card spot in the National League. They quickly ran through the Cubs but then got flattened by the Brewers.

For 2027, the goal will be to get back to the postseason once again. There’s some turnover on the position player side but a lot of the lineup will be returning. The bullpen could lose a few guys to free agency but still should be in decent shape. The primary focus will be on the rotation, which has been the case for a few years now.

Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize are headed to free agency. Griffin Canning and Lucas Giolito should be considered impending free agents as well, even though their deals contain mutual options. It’s been over a decade since a mutual option was picked up by both sides. They are just accounting measures to kick some of the payment to the end of the season as a de facto deferral. Michael King has an opt-out he will surely take. The Padres will have to decide on a club option for Nick Pivetta.

That leaves them with an on-paper rotation of Joe Musgrove, Randy Vásquez, JP Sears and Jhony Brito. Musgrove isn’t even a guarantee to be a starter next year after missing both the 2025 and 2026 seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He did log three postseason innings this year but jumping back up to a full workload next year is probably expecting too much, something that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller recently admitted.

Vásquez had a decent earned run average this year but worked around a 14.8% strikeout rate. Among pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched this year, only Tomoyuki Sugano of the Rockies was lower. Sears spent most of 2026 in Triple-A, where he posted a 7.49 ERA. Brito also spent most of the year in the minors and his 2.97 ERA was good but he worked around a low 16.2% strikeout rate. The Padres will need to add multiple arms.

The major unknown right now is what kind of resources the front office will have to work with. Under Peter Seidler, payroll kept going up but peaked in 2023. After his passing, the club scaled back a bit. That had various knock-on effects.

Juan Soto was traded to the Yankees, both to cut costs and also bring in some extra rotation depth. Various other trades have depleted the farm system. The Padres have continued to sign free agents but often with creative accounting measures. The Nick Pivetta and King deals both featured backloaded salaries and opt-outs. The deals for Germán Márquez, Canning and Giolito had mutual option buyouts to delay some of the payments.