Chicago Cubs (5) vs. San Diego Padres (4), 10:00 PM ET

CHC: RHP Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.51 ERA, 88 DRA-), SD: Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA, 92 DRA-)

If momentum is only as good as the next day’s starter, then Cubs fans will be thankful to see any name other than Michael King penned into the Padres lineup card. The righty sinkerballer kept the Cubs hitless through 6⅓ innings and scoreless through seven. And as pointed out by just about every NBC broadcast, 15 of the 16 teams to win the first game in the best-of-three era ultimately advanced to the next round.

The metrics are even more grim than that number implies. Since the best-of-three series has been around, 70% have ended with a sweep. For the Cubs to reach the next round of the playoffs, they’ll need to defy recent history, and they’ll need the crown jewel of their trade deadline frenzy to pitch like an ace. Kevin Gausman’s peripherals have him well ahead of a guy like King—who controlled Game 1. But unlike King, Gausman’s ERA hasn’t synced up with his strong DRA. He’s struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark, which certainly has the Padres lineup interested. They clapped a trio of dingers against Cubs starter Matthew Boyd on Tuesday.

Opposing Gausman will be Nick Pivetta, who has had no trouble keeping his ERA beneath his peripherals. His 2.86 ERA sits well below his 4.20 DRA, and he compiled similar results in 2025. Is he a late-blooming savant at peripheral-beating? Or a lucky pitcher who keeps flipping a coin and getting heads?

One thing that certainly isn’t luck is his strike-throwing. His 5.7% walk rate is in the 90th percentile among MLB pitchers this season, and it keeps the pressure on opposing lineups to produce with the barrel, not the base on balls. For a Cubs offense that led the league with a 10.6% walk rate, it might require an adjustment to the gameplan if they hope to rattle Pivetta better than they did King.