Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

The Cowboys showed signs of life last week, though it was too little too late against the Ravens. I expect Dallas to correct its mistakes and secure a win in New York. The Giants are coming off a victory over the Browns, but there isn’t much excitement around their performance, apart from Nabers, who has posted Beckham-esque stats. If the Cowboys can contain him, they should be in good shape. Our model predicts a 6-point win for Dallas, making the Vegas pick DAL -4.5.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have been inconsistent—scraping by for a win one week, then falling short the next. Despite their talent (aside from the quarterback position), I remain unconvinced about their potential. The Saints’ offense resembles what the Falcons’ offense could be. According to our model, the Saints will win outright by 4 points, making NOLA +1.5 the play.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers

The Bengals have been underperforming in matchups they should be winning, and the upcoming game against a resurgent Panthers team doesn’t look promising for them. While the Bengals need this win badly, I’m not confident they’ll pull through. Our model gives the Bengals a slight 2.5-point edge, making the points offered by the books too tempting to pass up. CAR +6.

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears

The Rams are dealing with significant injuries, and their recent victory against the 49ers was surprising. Still, with Stafford leading the charge, I expect this to be a close game. The Bears’ defense is strong, but their offense has been woefully ineffective, largely due to a struggling offensive line. Our model sees this as a pick’em game, so we’ll take the points with LAR +1.5.

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

This matchup features two strong teams colliding in what will be a must-watch game. Minnesota’s defense is elite, capable of shutting down any offense, while Green Bay may see the return of Jordan Love under center following his Week 1 injury. Our model gives the Vikings a 1-point advantage, making MIN +2.5 a great value pick.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

This looks like a bounce-back game for the Texans after their recent embarrassment in Minnesota. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are trending downward after being overwhelmed in Buffalo. Our model predicts a Texans victory by a touchdown, so the pick is HOU -4.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Steelers continue to find ways to win, even if it isn’t always pretty. While there’s little to praise in their QB play, Fields is managing the game well and avoiding costly mistakes. Meanwhile, Colts’ QB Richardson is reckless and inaccurate, making poor decisions that raise concerns. Our model projects the Steelers by 4, so the official play is PIT -1.5.

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Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets

The Broncos showed some spark with Bo Nix making key throws, while the Jets looked out of sorts in their loss to the Patriots. Both teams lack strong offenses, so this could become a defensive battle. Our model has the Jets winning by 4 points, making DEN +8 an appealing line.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles, coming off a tough game, face the Buccaneers, who will be looking to rebound from last week’s loss. Mayfield is set for a comeback performance, especially with the game being in Tampa Bay. The Eagles struggled mightily against the Saints last week and will likely be without key receivers again. Tampa Bay, the home underdog, presents good value. Our model predicts TB -1, so we’ll take TB +2.5.

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Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Commanders impressed against the Bengals last week, with Jayden Daniels emerging as a potential Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Despite flying under the radar, this Washington team could make a push in the NFC East. Meanwhile, the Cardinals struggled against the Lions and were outcoached. Our model sees this game as almost even, giving the Cardinals a slight edge at -1, but the Commanders should be able to stay competitive. The play here is WSH +5.5.

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New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Patriots had a dismal showing against the Jets in their Thursday Night matchup, abandoning the run game early and relying too much on Brissett’s arm. Ideally, Maye starts this week to spark some life into the offense. The 49ers are dealing with a rash of injuries, making the outcome hard to predict. Our model expects a San Francisco win by 9.5 points, but with all the variables at play, the value lies with NE +10.5.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chiefs remain one of the NFL’s top teams, despite some close games. They face a familiar rival in the Chargers, who are dealing with injuries. With Herbert likely limited, the Chiefs should win outright. Our model favors Kansas City by a touchdown, but there’s still value in the positive spread with the Chargers. LAC +9.5.

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Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Browns looked terrible in their last outing, benefiting from an early touchdown but failing to generate much else. With Watson underperforming and Garrett sidelined, the Raiders have a clear path to victory. Our model has Las Vegas favored by 1 point, so we’ll take LV +1.5 for the safety net.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Bills steamrolled the Jaguars last week, and their narrow Week 1 game against the Cardinals now looks like an anomaly. Meanwhile, the Ravens struggled to put away the Cowboys, nearly letting them mount a comeback. Our model favors the Bills by 3 points, so BUF +2.5 is an easy pick.

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Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

The Titans haven’t caught a break this season, and the Dolphins should be able to capitalize on home-field advantage. Despite their quarterback issues, Miami is expected to pull through. While the line is closer than I’d prefer, our model has the Dolphins winning by 5.5 points, so MIA +1.5 is the play.

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Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

This could be the game of the week, as the undefeated Seahawks take on the Lions in primetime. The Seahawks have yet to face a true test, playing relatively weak opponents so far. The line this week seems inflated, and I may have overrated Seattle’s ELO. Our model favors the Lions by a field goal, so we’re reluctantly betting SEA +4.5, hoping for a close game.