This week’s mailbag at MLBTR will tackle questions on the 2026 Rookie of the Year races, William Contreras’ future in Milwaukee, Brayan Bello’s trade candidacy, the outlooks for Spencer Torkelson and Nolan Gorman in Detroit and St. Louis, and more. (Note: questions are lightly edited for clarity and brevity.)

Let’s get into it!

How do you see the American League Rookie of the Year competition shaking out and whose award is it to lose? What are the team incentives for winning the award?

If we’re going to talk about one race here, we might as well talk about both the AL and the NL! But since the question asked specifically about the American League, we can start there. In my view, the AL Rookie of the Year chase has largely boiled down to a pair of AL Central standouts: Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle and Guardians lefty Parker Messick.

McGonigle’s .271/.372/.410 batting line doesn’t immediately jump out as elite, but he’s been 23% better than average at the plate after weighting for his home park, in the eyes of wRC+. He’s played in all but four games this season and, as of this writing, leads all rookies (in either league) with 608 plate appearances. He’s 12-for-14 in stolen base attempts and has proven to be both aggressive and adept when it comes to taking extra bases when a ball is in play; FanGraphs pegs him as one of the 20 best baserunners among all qualified big league hitters — not just rookies. He’s walked at a huge 13.5% clip and struck out in only 13.7% of his plate appearances. McGonigle has played quality defense at both positions on the left side of the infield. He’s as well-rounded a player as you’ll find.

Messick, meanwhile, has been one of the best pitchers — not just rookies — in the game. His 161 innings pitched rank 12th in baseball, and his 2.46 ERA sits fifth among qualified starters. He’s fanned just over one-quarter of his opponents, limited walks at a tidy 6.8% clip and induced grounders at a strong 44.7% clip. At a time when starters are working shorter workloads, he’s pitched into the sixth inning in 20 of 27 starts. He’s completed six frames 14 times and pitched into the seventh or later eight times. He’s not only been excellent on a rate basis but provided considerable volume and frequently spared manager Stephen Vogt’s bullpen.

Baseball-Reference has McGonigle at 5.8 wins above replacement to Messick’s 5.4. That’s a negligible difference. It’s a similar story at FanGraphs, where the two are more or less deadlocked at 4.5 WAR (McGonigle) and 4.3 WAR (Messick). If you go by RA9-WAR, which I prefer when looking at things like awards voting as it’s based on actual results as opposed to fWAR, which is based on a pitcher’s FIP, Messick has a big lead over McGonigle: 5.8 to 4.5.