Photo: Peter Baba

Mario Chalmers believes LeBron James is heading toward a familiar decision tree. The former Heat guard said he has a “gut feeling” James will sign with the Warriors, while also naming Miami as the other team he sees as a realistic landing spot.

“I really think it’s between Golden State and Miami just by knowing Bron and being his teammate before and the way he approaches the game,” Chalmers said. “Those are the two spots where I think he has the best chance of winning. I want to say Miami, but I have a gut feeling that it might be Golden State.”

The forecast comes at a time when James’ free agency remains fluid. Rich Paul said the market is still wide open, noting that James has “heard from every organization in the league” and leaving open the possibility that the 2026-27 season is not his last. That keeps the conversation from narrowing too quickly, even as the most obvious contenders continue to surface.

Golden State has long been part of the speculation because of the possible pairing with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Paul framed the Warriors’ interest as part of a larger idea that once included a dream scenario of Draymond, Steph and LeBron together, though he also suggested the Warriors’ pursuit becomes more complicated without a second major piece such as Anthony Davis.

Miami remains the other major name in the mix. Paul pointed to the Heat’s structure and defensive support as a strong fit, and that is consistent with Chalmers’ read of the situation. The Heat are one of the few teams James knows well, and they would give him a familiar organizational setting with a clear playoff standard.

Cleveland is also still being discussed, but Paul made clear there are both basketball and personal considerations there. He said James’ longtime confidant Brandon Weems would be a positive factor in a return.

James told the Lakers before free agency that he would continue playing in 2026-27 but for another franchise. The move ends an eight-year run in Los Angeles that included the 2020 championship and four playoff appearances. Even at 41, he remains a high-level producer, averaging 20.9 points, 7.2 assists and 6.1 rebounds last season while shooting 51.5% from the field in 60 games.