Jack Catterall could secure the ruling he wants from the WBA only to watch his biggest possible payday disappear. Dan Rafael expects Teofimo Lopez to vacate his welterweight belt to pursue Ryan Garcia if the sanctioning body enforces the mandatory order. That move would elevate Catterall to full champion status by default, leaving him stranded without the marquee event he earned.

Rafael noted on About Boxing that talks for a February clash between Teofimo and Ryan are already advanced. Catterall picked up the WBA secondary strap by defeating Shakhram Giyasov. Teofimo took on that mandatory requirement when he took the primary title from Rolando Romero, leading his team to file an appeal against facing the British contender.

Beating Teofimo in the ring does something an administrative belt upgrade never can: it forces the American market to treat Catterall as an elite player. A victory over Teofimo gives him the scalps, the broadcast clout, and the leverage to demand those massive paydays against Garcia, Haney, or Shakur. Without that signature scalp on live television, holding the WBA strap just makes him a high-risk, low-reward target whom the cash cows will happily bypass.

When George Kambosos Jr. took his lightweight belts, Teofimo did not demand an immediate rematch or run it back to set the record straight. He packed up, made excuses, and moved straight up to 140 pounds. The same pattern played out after Shakur Stevenson handed him a schooling at Madison Square Garden. Instead of working to avenge it, the camp pointed fingers, blamed outside distractions, and pivoted right toward chasing other lucrative opportunities.

If Catterall were to drag Teofimo into a grinding, frustrating southpaw clinic and take a decision, Teofimo would almost certainly wipe his hands of it, claim a bad night or bad judging, and look anywhere else. Catterall wouldn’t get a lucrative rematch clause, but he wouldn’t need one; the win itself would be the golden ticket.

Instead, if Teofimo drops the belt to chase Garcia, Catterall gets left holding a paper championship while the entire circus moves on without him. He becomes the guy holding the gold bullion’s wrapper while the treasure gets split in an entirely different room.

With the WBA just reaffirming the mandatory order today, Catterall is staring right down the barrel of a scenario where he continues to be ignored and avoided, treated as if he doesn’t exist. Even if he gets elevated to full champion because Teofimo Lopez drops the strap to fight Ryan Garcia, his stylistic profile acts like a quarantine sign for ‘The Big Four.’

For Ryan Garcia, Devin Haney, Teofimo, and Shakur Stevenson, Catterall represents the ultimate business nightmare: a slick, defensive southpaw who doesn’t bring American crossover pay-per-view numbers to the table.

Look at what happens to each of them if they step in with him. Ryan Garcia and Teofimo Lopez both rely on explosive, rhythm-based offense and opponents who stand in front of them. Catterall’s step-back counters and clinching break up their timing, making them look sloppy and frustrated for 12 rounds. Even if they win, their stock drops because the fight is ugly.

Devin Haney and Shakur Stevenson want to get dragged into a low-output chess match against another defensive specialist where the margin for error is razor-thin. A fight between Catterall and Shakur or Haney risks turning into a tactical stalemate that turns off casual fans and hurts their marketability.

Boxing’s top stars only take massive stylistic risks when the financial upside justifies the danger, or when a fighter’s fan base forces the issue. Catterall has plenty of respect in the UK, but he doesn’t move the needle enough in the US to force the Big Four’s hand. Holding the WBA belt without a marquee scalp just makes him an expensive, dangerous detour they can easily bypass by fighting each other in lucrative non-title or single-belt events.

The WBA possesses the authority to strip Lopez if he ignores their ruling, but sanctioning bodies hold zero commercial leverage over fighters with crossover box-office appeal. Garcia brings the WBC title to their planned encounter, ensuring the event retains championship prestige alongside massive pay-per-view interest. Catterall would gain a recognized belt, but an elevated paper championship cannot match the global profile that comes from beating Lopez live in the ring.

With Devin Haney meeting Liam Paro in December to unify the other titles at 147 pounds, immediate options remain narrow. If Lopez walks away, Matchroom must stage a local defense in the UK to keep Catterall active while waiting to approach the Haney-Paro winner down the line. That route keeps him in position for eventual unification, yet it delays the career-defining platform he thought he had locked down.