10:57 pm: It was indeed Tommy John surgery for Dobbins, Goold has confirmed. The right-hander previously had Tommy John surgery during his junior year of college in 2021.

8:25 pm: Cardinals pitcher Hunter Dobbins underwent reconstructive elbow surgery yesterday, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goold did not mention the specific procedure Dobbins went for, but he reported that the 27-year-old’s expected recovery timeline is about 12 months.

Dobbins landed on the injured list a couple of weeks ago. Despite the pitcher’s insistence at the time that what he was experiencing was “not the same feeling” as when he tore his UCL in 2021 (per Goold), it was hard not to be concerned after he exited his start against the Phillies in the middle of an at-bat. It was even more concerning when he met with well-known orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister for a second opinion (per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). It was Meister who performed the righty’s Tommy John surgery five years ago. The 12-month timeline leaves open the possibility that Dobbins could pitch late in 2027. Nonetheless, it’s a devastating development for a promising young arm.

The Cardinals acquired Dobbins from the Red Sox this offseason in the Willson Contreras trade. He had enjoyed a solid rookie campaign for Boston in 2025, pitching to a 4.13 ERA and 4.32 SIERA in 61 innings before an ACL tear ended his season at the All-Star break.

Dobbins started 2026 on the injured list, still recovering from ACL surgery. Even after he was reinstated, he had to fight for playing time in St. Louis. The Cardinals optioned and recalled him four times from May to August. Yet, through it all, Dobbins put up a 3.67 ERA and 4.24 SIERA in 54 big league innings. He might not have had the kind of stuff that overpowered opposing hitters, but he used his six-pitch mix effectively, missing more bats and earning more strikeouts than he did in 2025. So far in his MLB career, he has looked like a capable back-end starter, but he hasn’t had the chance to prove he can succeed over a full season. Now, he will have to wait until at least 2028 for that opportunity.

The Cardinals were running a six-man rotation before Dobbins and Andre Pallante both hit the IL in mid-August. They have since played a couple of bullpen games instead of replacing either starter on the roster. That probably wouldn’t have been a feasible plan for the rest of the season, so thankfully, Pallante is set to return tomorrow in Colorado, joining Kyle Leahy, Michael McGreevy, Matthew Liberatore, and Quinn Mathews in the rotation. The Cardinals can’t have high hopes of playing in October, but they’re currently only 3.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. With 22 games left to play, a comeback remains possible. However, if they pull it off, it will have to be without Dobbins on the staff.