The 2026 American League Championship Series is officially set, and it will be between the AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians and the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays.

The two teams met six times in the regular season with Tampa Bay emerging victorious in five of the six contests. There was a constant theme during the regular-season matchups and that theme was outstanding pitching.

Let's dive a little bit deeper into the season series and see who will have confidence at the most important time of the season.

What did the season series between Cleveland and Tampa Bay tell us about the Rays?

To keep it simple, Tampa Bay's pitching dominated Cleveland hitting in the season series. Rays' pitching held the Guardians to just six runs in the six games played with half of those being shutout wins.

Right-handers Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez each shined in their work against Cleveland. Rasmussen made two starts, posting a 1.50 ERA with just two earned runs allowed and 15 strikeouts across 12 innings.

Martinez also made two starts against the Guardians and he was even better than Rasmussen. Martinez tossed 13 shutout innings, allowing just seven hits, walking one and striking out nine.

What did the season series between Cleveland and Tampa Bay tell us about the Guardians?

Despite losing the season series 5-1, the Guardians pitching was quite solid against Tampa Bay hitters. Take out an 11-run outburst in one of the games and the Rays averaged just 2.2 runs per game in the other five.

It was the usual catalysts on the mound for Cleveland with left-hander Parker Messick and right-hander Gavin Williams having excellent success against Tampa Bay.

Messick made two starts, posting a 1.35 ERA with just two walks and 15 strikeouts across 13 1/3 innings. Williams made just one start against the Rays and tossed 7 2/3 innings, allowing one unearned run on five hits and striking out nine.

Who has the edge in the ALCS?

If the ALCS plays out anything like the regular season series did, it will be Tampa Bay that advances to the World Series. It has the better lineup top to bottom and that will ultimately offset the outstanding pitching that both staffs will put on display.

Cleveland did get hot in its comeback series win in the ALDS, averaging over six runs per game in Games 3-5. That same offensive output will be needed if the Guardians hope to reach the World Series for the first time since 2016.