With just a week of play left before the All-Star break, the playoff pictures in both leagues still look crowded. That should make for a particularly interesting trade deadline. There aren’t many definite sellers, and the two weeks of games after the midseason break could have a huge impact on who is buying and who might be looking to reset for next year.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds. (Specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%.) The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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A week after winning two of three in San Diego, the Dodgers won a four-game set against the Padres this past weekend. Los Angeles now leads the NL West by 14 games and very much look like an unstoppable juggernaut. Freddie Freeman remained hot as June turned to July. With another nine hits this week, he now has 20 hits across his last 14 games. During that stretch, he’s slashing .404/.483/.673 with three home runs and a 217 wRC+.

Over the past two weeks, the Brewers have won six of seven against the Reds, completely burying their division rival in the standings. All those wins have given Milwaukee the best divisional record in the NL. Just like last year, the Brewers are getting contributions from a bunch of unheralded players. Last week, Garrett Mitchell collected 10 hits and two home runs while Jake Bauers blasted a go-ahead two-run shot in Sunday’s victory, his second homer of the week. Unfortunately, after looking strong in his return from the IL a few weeks ago, Brandon Woodruff was sidelined again with the same dead arm issues that caused him to miss nearly two months of action earlier this season.

With Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber leading the way for the Phillies, it can be easy to forget about reigning NL batting champion Trea Turner. The shortstop has struggled through most of this season, but he showed some signs of life last week when he blasted home runs in three straight games. He now has a 141 wRC+ over his last 16 games.

The Rays had a nine-game winning streak snapped on Saturday and wound up losing their weekend series to the Astros. Junior Caminero launched four more home runs last week, giving him 11 in his last 12 games. Cedric Mullins also got in on the fun, pelting a pair of home runs last week to bring his total to four in his last eight games. Tampa Bay currently holds a four-game lead in the AL East, but this next week will determine whether the team remains in first place to begin the second half. The Rays have a huge homestand coming up next, with four games against the Yankees and three against the Mariners.

Even as the Phillies managed to keep pace with the Braves in the NL East race, the Atlanta offense woke up from its slump last week. On Friday, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II hit their first home runs since June 12 and June 13, respectively. The next day, Austin Riley went yard for the first time since May 20, and Drake Baldwin broke his extended home run drought on Sunday. With Ronald Acuña Jr. nearing a return from a hamstring injury — he’s starting a rehab assignment this week and should be activated following the All-Star break — it seems like the Braves’ lineup has weathered this midseason storm.

The Marlins had a major league-best 20-6 record in June, launching themselves into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. They dropped two games in Colorado to start this month, but then swept the Athletics over the weekend to rekindle their hot streak. Their win on Sunday exposed the issue that will definitely need to be addressed ahead of the trade deadline. After spinning seven perfect innings in Sacramento, Eury Pérez departed his start on Sunday with the Marlins leading 8-0. Pérez was at 92 pitches when he was removed, so it seems unlikely that he would’ve been allowed to stay in the game to complete the perfect game anyway, but that’s not the main issue here. Instead, the problem is Miami’s bullpen allowed eight runs across the final two innings. The Marlins did manage to squeak by with a 9-8 victory. In more encouraging news, Miami is now sporting a 103 wRC+ as a team. That would be the highest mark in franchise history, and two of the four times the team has had a wRC+ of 99 or higher, it won the World Series. No big deal.

The Guardians and White Sox split an extremely competitive four-game series this past weekend. Cleveland started it off with a pair of come-from-behind, walk-off wins, but Chicago returned the favor with a comeback of its own on Saturday. And with a gritty 7-6 victory on Sunday, the White Sox ensured they ended the week in first place in the AL Central. It was a fantastic battle between these two division rivals. Chicago also received some good news on the health front: Munetaka Murakami should begin a rehab assignment this week and could be ready to return to the big leagues by this coming weekend.

The Mariners earned a modicum of revenge against the Blue Jays, winning a weekend series against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year. Combined with a sweep of the Angels earlier in the week, Seattle jumped out to a two-game lead in the AL West. The offense looked a little better last week despite losing Julio Rodríguez to the 7-day concussion IL on Friday; the Mariners averaged five runs per game even though they scored just once in a 1-0 victory on Thursday and were shutout on Friday. It was the starting pitching, though, that carried them. Seattle’s six starters allowed just six total runs last week, and Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, and Emerson Hancock all had scoreless outings.

The Yankees’ losing streak hit seven games before they finally won on Friday. They wound up dropping the final two games of their series against the Twins over the weekend and have now lost 13 of their last 17 games. During this stretch, the offense is averaging just 2.8 runs per game and has failed to score more than five runs in any game. Anthony Volpe leads the team with an 87 wRC+ during this team-wide slump, and Ben Rice (65), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (60), and Cody Bellinger (14) are all ice cold.

In a battle between two surprise NL Wild Card contenders, the Pirates took two of three from the Nationals this past weekend. Pittsburgh has floundered a bit over the last few weeks, though it is still very much in the mix for one of those Wild Card slots. Paul Skenes hasn’t looked like his dominant self for almost two months now; he allowed eight runs in an ugly outing against the Phillies last week and is running a 5.36 ERA in nine starts since May 17. Meanwhile, the Nationals continue to lead the majors in runs scored thanks to guys like James Wood and Luis Garcia Jr., both of whom hit a trio of home runs last week. Garica has been crushing the ball recently; since the beginning of June, he’s hit 14 home runs and he’s already surpassed his career high of 18 from 2024.

Both the Tigers and Red Sox have managed to clamber their way back into the AL playoff picture, taking advantage of a thoroughly mediocre Wild Card field. Detroit swept the Yankees and then won its weekend series against the Rangers to bring itself within five games of a Wild Card spot. After dropping a series to the Nationals, the Red Sox bounced back with a sweep of the Angels over the weekend and pulled to only four games back in the Wild Card race. Boston’s starting rotation has continued to suffer from injury attrition — Connelly Early is the latest pitcher to be placed on the IL, and Ranger Suarez departed his start on Sunday early with left adductor tightness.

The Padres finally snapped an eight-game losing streak with a win over the Dodgers on Sunday. Five of those losses during that stretch came against Los Angeles, essentially ending any hope of challenging for the division lead this year. The team allowed a whopping 73 runs during the losing streak, and the extremely thin depth for the pitching staff has suddenly reared its ugly head. San Diego is now a game under .500 and four games back in the Wild Card race. You have to wonder if A.J. Preller is going to add aggressively ahead of the trade deadline or if he’ll decide to reset the roster for next year.

The Reds activated Hunter Greene off the IL on Saturday, but he was roughed up by the Orioles for eight runs in 3 1/3 innings. He did earn seven strikeouts and his stuff looked mostly intact — his fastball averaged just a hair under 99 mph and his slider generated 14 whiffs. Greene’s return might have come too late to save Cincinnati’s season. The team hasn’t sniffed a .500 record since early June, and things don’t seem likely to turn around very quickly. Instead, it’ll be another rebuilding year, though this time around, the Reds have got another couple of building blocks in Sal Stewart and Chase Burns to add to the foundation.

Remember that note I had about the Rockies’ home field advantage from last week’s power rankings? Well, thanks to an offense that plated 14 runs against the Marlins on Thursday and a total of 26 runs across three games against the Giants, the Rockies just went 4-3 during a seven-game homestand. Mickey Moniak and Jake McCarthy both hit a trio of home runs last week, and Hunter Goodman swatted two more, giving him six in his last nine games.