As if the Wild Card chases weren’t exciting enough, a bunch of the division races were also upended last week. The Rays and Rangers claimed first place in their respective divisions, the Phillies cut their deficit to three games in the NL East, and the Guardians and White Sox stayed tied atop the AL Central.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds. (Specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%.) The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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The Dodgers extended their NL West lead over the Padres to 10 games after taking two of three from their division rival over the weekend. Combined with a three-game sweep of the Twins earlier in the week, Los Angeles is looking stronger than ever. And the lineup is getting healthier, too. Tommy Edman was activated off the IL last week and Teoscar Hernández is on track to return this week. After a slowish start and a trip to the IL, Mookie Betts is finally turning things around; over the last three weeks, he’s slashing .320/.363/.573 (a 156 wRC+) with five home runs, including the 300th of his career on Wednesday. His hot bat is covering for the continued struggles of Kyle Tucker; the outfielder missed a couple of games with back spasms last week and then was dropped to seventh in the lineup this past weekend. He blasted a home run and collected three hits on Saturday in response, but he still has just a 103 wRC+ on the year.

It was a bit of an up-and-down week for the Brewers. They swept the Reds to start off the week but wound up losing a big series against the Cubs over the weekend. Still, Milwaukee had to be encouraged by the return of Brandon Woodruff; he was dominant in his first game back from the IL on Monday, holding Cincinnati scoreless over six innings and allowing one hit while striking out 10. He followed up that gem with another scoreless, one-hit start against the Cubs on Sunday, though the Brewers ended up losing the game in extra innings.

At the start of the month, the Braves held a 9.5-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East and looked like they were going to cruise to a division title. Fast forward four weeks, and that gap is down to just three games! Atlanta is mired in a particularly ugly slump, winning just four times over its last 16 games. The offense has been the main culprit; the team was shut out twice last week and has scored just 2.9 runs per game during this stretch. Meanwhile, the Phillies have won four consecutive series after beating the Nationals and Mets last week. Bryce Harper collected 10 hits and two home runs last week and Kyle Schwarber blasted his 30th home run of the season on Sunday.

The Rays and Yankees flipped flopped in the AL East standings after Tampa Bay extended its winning streak to five games while New York got swept by the Red Sox over the weekend. Junior Caminero is on fire right now; he blasted seven home runs and collected 15 RBI last week, raising his wRC+ to 154 on the season. On the other side of the coin, it’s a really bad time for Ben Rice to be slumping. He’s slashing .163/.182/.302 over his last 11 games, and the Yankees have scored just 2.6 runs per game during his slide. Suddenly, the absence of Aaron Judge has caught up with the Yanks.

The Cubs went 6-1 last week, sweeping the Mets in four games and then winning a huge series against the Brewers this past weekend. That series against New York will probably be remembered as the Dansby Swanson series, for Chicago anyway. (The Mets are bound to have different memories, which we’ll touch on much, much lower in these rankings.) The veteran shortstop collected seven hits, three home runs, and 15 RBI in the series, including one that inspired a conga line from the Norway World Cup fans in the outfield stands. It’s a strong string of results given all the injuries the ballclub has dealt with recently — just last week, Edward Cabrera, Ben Brown, Phil Maton, and Hoby Milner were placed on the IL. To alleviate some of those issues, the team swung a trade with the Mets after Wednesday’s doubleheader, acquiring David Peterson to reinforce the rotation. He allowed a home run on his first pitch as a Cub, but wound up outdueling Kyle Harrison in an 8-2 victory on Saturday.

The other team from Chicago also enjoyed some strong results last week, as the White Sox went 4-2 against the Guardians and Royals. A 22-1 blowout win on Friday flipped the South Siders’ run differential into the positive side of the ledger, making them one of just five teams in the AL that can claim that. As for the Guardians, they bounced back from that series loss to their division rival by winning their weekend series against the Mariners. It was their first series win since placing José Ramírez on the IL earlier this month. The team did activate Chase DeLauter off the IL on Sunday, and he delivered the go-ahead hit in the eighth inning. The Guardians and White Sox will meet again this week in Cleveland for a huge four-game series.

The Rangers mopped the Blue Jays over the weekend to claim first place in the AL West. Between the Mariners’ offensive struggles, the Astros’ injury woes, and the Athletics’ pitching issues, Texas has clambered to the top of the division with a .500 record. The top four teams in the division are separated by just two games, though none of them seems poised to break away from the pack. For the Rangers, Wyatt Langford had been red hot since they activated him off the IL on June 5, slashing .317/.371/.634 (a 177 wRC+) in 89 plate appearances this month. Unfortunately, he returned to the IL over the weekend, this time with a hamstring injury that will keep him out at least through the All-Star break.

The Mariners had led the division for a month, from May 27 to June 27, but they conceded the top spot after scuffling over the last two weeks. Entering play Sunday, they hadn’t scored more than three runs in any of their previous 13 games, going 5-8 during that stretch. Seattle scored five runs against the Guardians in Sunday’s rubber match, but still lost 6-5 because of a bullpen meltdown.

Meanwhile, the Astros have managed to reinsert themselves into the AL playoff picture after their woeful start to the season. They went 5-2 against the Blue Jays and Tigers last week and have now won their last five series in a row. Their pitching staff, so dreadful for much of the year, might also be improving. Hunter Brown returned from the IL a couple of weeks ago, and Tatsuya Imai looks like he might have finally figured things out. The Japanese starter has struck out double-digit batters in each of his last two starts while walking just one.

As for the Athletics, after leading the division for most of May, they have really fallen off in June. They haven’t won a series since their two wild three-game sets in Las Vegas a couple of weeks ago, and they just wrapped up a disappointing 2-4 week against the Giants and Angels. They’ve allowed 6.2 runs per game this month, though that mark drops to 5.3 if you ignore the 55 runs they gave up during those six games in Las Vegas. If you’re looking for some encouragement on that front, Gage Jump has allowed just four runs total across his last five starts. The rookie is currently sporting a 2.04 ERA and a 2.14 FIP after six big league outings.

Even though they wound up losing the final two games of their big series against the Dodgers this past weekend, the Padres swept the Braves and earned a win over Los Angeles on Friday. That was enough to get the team back into the thick of the NL Wild Card race, just half a game behind the Cardinals. After a slow start to the season, Manny Machado is finally showing some signs of life; over the last three weeks, he’s put up a 142 wRC+ with four home runs.

Despite possessing the fourth-worst record in the AL, the Red Sox are one of five teams in the league with a positive run differential. Their four-game sweep of the Yankees over the weekend was the first time the team had accomplished that feat since 2018. And thanks to the general malaise of the AL, Boston finds itself just 4.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race.

With a win on Monday, the Blue Jays finally returned to .500 for the first time since May 29 and just the second time since April 4. Toronto then lost its next six games, tumbling to 2.5 games back in the AL Wild Card standings. It’s a huge blow to the momentum the team had been building over the previous few weeks. For his part, Kazuma Okamoto has been trying to carry the offense; he collected nine hits and three home runs last week.

The Angels finally bit the bullet and fired general manager Perry Minasian on Friday. Over five-plus years, his record with the ballclub was an ugly 392-500. Much of the blame for the franchise’s dysfunction lies with owner Arte Moreno, but Minasian’s failures went beyond a lack of resources or commitment from ownership, from bungling Shohei Ohtani’s final year with the team to a questionable draft strategy and no clear development pathway for the organization’s prospects. To the Angels’ credit, the on-field results haven’t been terrible recently. They’ve won six of their last eight games, stringing together a pair of series wins against the Orioles and Athletics last week.

The Angels weren’t the only team who made a leadership change last week. The Mets fired manager Carlos Mendoza on Friday morning following six consecutive losses. Of course, he is merely the one taking the fall for an underperforming, and perhaps poorly constructed, roster. Freddy Peralta’s struggles have been particularly pronounced, and Friday was just the 10th time all season that Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette were in the lineup together. The Mets scored just once in that game, a 2-1 loss to the Phillies.

A few weeks ago, you could sort of squint and see how the Tigers could play their way back into the AL Wild Card race if the return of Tarik Skubal helped them turn things around. Unfortunately, they’ve gone 6-8 since activating Skubal off the IL and they’re no closer to climbing into the playoff picture than they were two weeks ago. More and more, it’s looking like this season is going to end up being a big step backwards for them after two straight playoff appearances. At least Kevin McGonigle has hit the ground running, and Dillon Dingler’s breakout is something to build upon.

So much for home field advantage. The Rockies haven’t run a winning record at Coors Field since 2022. I suppose it’s hard to win more games than you lose at home when you’re losing over 100 games a year. That trend has continued so far this year, but it may not last. The Rockies enter Monday with an 18-22 home record, and they’ve won four of their last five home series. With a seven-game homestand on deck against the Marlins and Giants this week, Colorado has a chance to climb back above .500 at Coors.