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The dust has barely settled from a wild day of wheeling and dealing, but the season continues to chug along. The dog days of summer are just ahead, the playoff pictures in both leagues are a little clearer after a few teams on the fence decided to sell, and the stretch run looks like it’ll have plenty of drama as teams race toward the playoffs.
Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.
First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.
Note: All power rankings stats, including team records, are updated through Sunday’s games. The rest of the information below is current as of Tuesday morning.
FanGraphs Power Rankings
| 1 | BOS | 60-51 | ⛵ | 1599 | 1505 | 86.1% | 1610 | 2 |
| 2 | MIL | 69-42 | ⛵ | 1567 | 1491 | 99.9% | 1598 | -1 |
| 3 | LAD | 69-43 | ❄️ | 1563 | 1493 | 100.0% | 1595 | -1 |
| 4 | ATL | 67-45 | — | 1550 | 1492 | 99.4% | 1583 | 1 |
| 5 | TBR | 65-46 | — | 1537 | 1488 | 98.7% | 1573 | -1 |
| 6 | CHC | 63-49 | — | 1545 | 1497 | 92.4% | 1570 | 0 |
| 7 | NYY | 63-49 | 🛣️ | 1535 | 1498 | 98.3% | 1568 | 0 |
| 8 | HOU | 58-55 | 🔥 | 1547 | 1491 | 57.5% | 1552 | 6 |
| 9 | CHW | 59-52 | 🛣️ | 1525 | 1499 | 57.0% | 1542 | 0 |
| 10 | ARI | 59-53 | — | 1531 | 1503 | 45.7% | 1527 | 1 |
| 11 | PHI | 59-53 | ❄️ | 1516 | 1503 | 74.6% | 1514 | -3 |
| 12 | SDP | 58-54 | 🔥 ⛵ | 1516 | 1504 | 30.5% | 1502 | 8 |
| 13 | MIA | 58-55 | 🔥 | 1513 | 1501 | 24.4% | 1497 | 9 |
| 14 | MIN | 56-57 | ⛵ | 1500 | 1490 | 26.5% | 1487 | -1 |
| 15 | DET | 54-58 | ⛵ | 1517 | 1494 | 23.0% | 1486 | 3 |
| 16 | CLE | 57-56 | — | 1489 | 1507 | 44.1% | 1485 | -1 |
| 17 | BAL | 54-58 | — | 1508 | 1505 | 17.9% | 1479 | -1 |
| 18 | TEX | 55-57 | ❄️ | 1487 | 1502 | 35.7% | 1474 | -8 |
| 19 | SEA | 55-58 | 🛣️ | 1485 | 1494 | 50.5% | 1470 | 0 |
| 20 | PIT | 56-57 | ❄️ | 1495 | 1508 | 20.6% | 1465 | -8 |
| 21 | CIN | 53-58 | — | 1489 | 1506 | 2.3% | 1453 | 2 |
| 22 | TOR | 52-60 | — | 1478 | 1500 | 4.7% | 1445 | 2 |
| 23 | WSN | 55-58 | — | 1466 | 1503 | 2.6% | 1437 | -6 |
| 24 | STL | 55-57 | — | 1459 | 1504 | 7.6% | 1434 | -3 |
| 25 | NYM | 47-66 | 🛣️ | 1461 | 1506 | 0.1% | 1425 | 0 |
| 26 | SFG | 47-65 | — | 1449 | 1504 | 0.0% | 1415 | 1 |
| 27 | COL | 45-67 | — | 1439 | 1509 | 0.0% | 1406 | 2 |
| 28 | KCR | 46-67 | — | 1434 | 1496 | 0.0% | 1402 | -2 |
| 29 | LAA | 43-69 | — | 1410 | 1499 | 0.0% | 1382 | -1 |
| 30 | ATH | 45-67 | ❄️ 🛣️ | 1387 | 1502 | 0.0% | 1363 | 0 |
🔥 Elo up >20 pts (last 10) | ❄️ Elo down >20 pts (last 10)
🛣️ Avg opp Elo >1525 (last 10) | ⛵ Avg opp Elo <1475 (last 10)
…
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Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
| Red Sox | 60-51 | 1599 | 1505 | 86.1% | 1610 |
| Brewers | 69-42 | 1567 | 1491 | 99.9% | 1598 |
| Dodgers | 69-43 | 1563 | 1493 | 100.0% | 1595 |
The Red Sox might not have the best overall record in baseball, but they just swept the Dodgers over the weekend and have taken the top spot in these power rankings as a result. Boston has been the best team in baseball for about a month and a half now; the Sox are 31-8 record since the start of play on June 19. They also made one of the most surprising moves on Monday, acquiring Adley Rutschman to significantly improve their production from behind the plate. They gave up a serious haul for the three-time All-Star catcher, but the bold move signals that Boston believes this recent hot streak is more indicative of its true talent over the remainder of the regular season.
The Brewers didn’t land Tarik Skubal, instead opting to make a handful of moves around the margins of their roster. They added Dustin May, JoJo Romero, and Antonio Senzatela to provide a ton of necessary depth for the pitching staff. That trio should be solid enough, but none of them is the kind of impact addition that Skubal could have been. The Brewers currently have the best record in baseball, but even after they made the necessary moves to improve their roster for the stretch run, it still feels like a pretty disappointing trade deadline for them.
The Dodgers made their big move a few days before the trade deadline, acquiring Skubal from the Tigers on Saturday. This trade isn’t meant to shore up the roster ahead of a summer push in a tight playoff race; rather, it’s all about improving the team’s odds of winning a third World Series championship in a row. The Dodgers are in an odd place on the win curve, where a postseason berth is all but guaranteed but the randomness of the playoffs still looms. Nothing can fully eliminate that risk in October, but adding the two-time Cy Young winner to an already-stacked rotation goes a long way toward reducing the potential for an early-round upset. Alas, a sloppy series against the Red Sox this past weekend resulted in a sweep, and Los Angeles also lost the first game of a series against the Cubs on Monday. Skubal is slated to start on Tuesday, and he’ll be tasked with stopping this four-game slide.
Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
| Braves | 67-45 | 1550 | 1492 | 99.4% | 1583 |
| Rays | 65-46 | 1537 | 1488 | 98.7% | 1573 |
| Cubs | 63-49 | 1545 | 1497 | 92.4% | 1570 |
| Yankees | 63-49 | 1535 | 1498 | 98.3% | 1568 |
The Braves had a pretty quiet trade deadline, choosing to add a few minor pieces in outfielder Lane Thomas, righty starter Tyler Mahle, and lefty reliever Brent Suter. Riding a five-game winning streak and a 12-5 record coming out of the All-Star break, Atlanta must mot have felt the need to act very aggressively. It’s a little surprising the team didn’t do more to improve the depth of the starting rotation, especially since Reynaldo López injured his knee last week, further depleting the group. The Braves have a bunch of young starters stashed in Triple-A they can cycle through if needed, and Spencer Schwellenbach is on track to return sometime before the end of the regular season, but their deadline inaction still feels like a missed opportunity.
The Rays added to a position of strength when they acquired right-handed starter Freddy Peralta from the Mets over the weekend. Their pitching staff has been solid all season long, but their position in the standings has forced them to think about what a deep postseason run might look like. All-Star righty Drew Rasmussen has been fantastic, and Shane McClanahan has been wonderful, though the lefty was placed on the IL last week with a minor back strain. Tampa Bay also has to be thinking about McClanahan’s workload after he missed all of the past two years due to injury. Peralta might not be the ace he was in Milwaukee, but he’s a veteran starter who should help the Rays make some noise in October. They also added Liam Hicks to solidify their production behind the plate and lengthen the lineup.
The Cubs did what they had to do at the trade deadline: add pitching. They acquired right-handed starter Kevin Gausman from the Blue Jays on Sunday, and then traded with the Mets for righty starter Clay Holmes, with the Marlins for lefty starter Braxton Garrett, and with the Angels for righty reliever Ryan Zeferjahn on Monday. While all those additions might not be enough to help Chicago chase down the Brewers in the NL Central, they do give the team a much stronger foundation for a deep postseason run.
With injuries decimating their lineup, the Yankees were focused on bulking up the offense at the deadline. They added first baseman/second baseman Luis García Jr. from the Nationals on Sunday, left fielder Heliot Ramos from the Giants on Monday, and are reportedly promoting top prospect George Lombard Jr. on Tuesday. Without a timeline for the returns of both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and a hamstring injury sidelining Cody Bellinger, the Yankees needed to act decisively to improve their standing in the AL playoff picture. With a fantastic pitching staff now supported by a strengthened lineup, this team should be a force to reckon with in October. The only lingering question is whether or not Judge will be healthy for that postseason run.
Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
| Astros | 58-55 | 1547 | 1491 | 57.5% | 1552 |
| White Sox | 59-52 | 1525 | 1499 | 57.0% | 1542 |
| Diamondbacks | 59-53 | 1531 | 1503 | 45.7% | 1527 |
| Phillies | 59-53 | 1516 | 1503 | 74.6% | 1514 |
The Astros swept the Rangers this past weekend to claim first place in the AL West for the first time since early April, and they’ve now won 10 of their last 12 games. This hot streak has helped them leapfrog both Texas and Seattle in the standings, putting them in the driver’s seat in their division. They didn’t make any splashy moves at the trade deadline, only sending right-hander Spencer Arrighetti to the Blue Jays for Daulton Varsho to give them a much-needed center fielder. The pitching staff has seen the return of Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski from their respective injuries recently, but it feels like Houston will only go as far as Yordan Alvarez can carry it.
The White Sox fared well in their matchups with the Yankees and Rays last week, going 4-3 against two of the best teams in the AL. The two wins vs. New York were particularly dramatic; they were both walk-offs in extra innings to secure the series split. Now Chicago has to face the Red Sox and Guardians this week to complete its AL gauntlet. In a welcome show of faith in the progress the team has made this year, the White Sox acquired veteran right-hander Luis Castillo from the Mariners to hopefully improve the starting rotation, along with a bunch of depth pieces — catcher Joey Bart from the Braves, center fielder Brenton Doyle from the Rockies, and righty reliever Huascar Brazobán from the Mets — to reinforce the rest of the roster. It’s now up to the young core to lead the South Siders through this stretch run.
The Diamondbacks were in a really weird position ahead of the trade deadline. They had played their way into a Wild Card spot over the last few weeks — they’re 14-6 since July 9 — but they didn’t exactly act like a buyer on Monday. Perhaps it was because they’ve got a handful of injured pitchers — Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Michael Soroka, and Justin Martinez are all in various stages of rehabbing from their respective injuries — who should help reinforce the pitching staff over the next few weeks. The one move they made, trading for lefty-hitting outfielder Lars Nootbaar, addresses one of the biggest holes in their lineup. Arizona started a critical four-game series against the Padres with a win on Monday.
Tier 4 – The Muddy Middle
| Padres | 58-54 | 1516 | 1504 | 30.5% | 1502 |
| Marlins | 58-55 | 1513 | 1501 | 24.4% | 1497 |
| Twins | 56-57 | 1500 | 1490 | 26.5% | 1487 |
| Tigers | 54-58 | 1517 | 1494 | 23.0% | 1486 |
| Guardians | 57-56 | 1489 | 1507 | 44.1% | 1485 |
| Orioles | 54-58 | 1508 | 1505 | 17.9% | 1479 |
| Rangers | 55-57 | 1487 | 1502 | 35.7% | 1474 |
| Mariners | 55-58 | 1485 | 1494 | 50.5% | 1470 |
| Pirates | 56-57 | 1495 | 1508 | 20.6% | 1465 |
The Twins were one of the surprising buyers at the deadline, adding righty reliever Jeff Hoffman from the Blue Jays, lefty reliever A.J. Minter from the Mets, and righty starter Dean Kremer to bolster the pitching staff. After losing the final two games of their weekend series against the Mariners in walk-off fashion, those bullpen reinforcements will be a huge help. The Twins are just a game behind the Guardians for the final Wild Card spot and four games back in the AL Central. Their roster looks pretty solid, but they’re currently missing the superstar who was carrying a lot of the offensive load, as Byron Buxton was placed back on the IL last week with the same hip injury that sidelined him for a few weeks earlier in July. Meanwhile, Cleveland added left-handed starter Foster Griffin, right-handed-hitting outfielder Jo Adell, and lefty-swinging first baseman Nathaniel Lowe to its roster on Monday. The three moves should add some juice to a team that’s been limping along with a 6-10 record since the All-Star break.
The Marlins snapped their 12-game losing streak last Monday and immediately rattled off six wins in seven games to jump right back into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. That perfectly timed hot streak wasn’t enough to prevent the team from soft-selling at the deadline. Trading away catcher/first baseman Liam Hicks won’t have too much of a long-term impact since Miami had a bit of a logjam at first base and designated hitter, and catcher Joe Mack has acclimated to the big leagues very well since being called up in May. The core that had carried the Fish into this position in the playoff picture is still very much intact.
After being swept by the Astros over the weekend, there was some speculation that the Rangers would sell despite sitting two games back in the AL Wild Card race. They wound up standing pat and will ride their current roster as far as it will take them. The same can’t be said for the Orioles and Tigers. Both of those teams are just a half game behind Texas in the standings, but they opted for pretty dramatic teardowns. Detroit moved Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, while Baltimore traded away Adley Rutschman, Dean Kremer, Taylor Ward, and Tyler Wells. The AL standings have been wide open for the entire season, and instead of gambling on a chance at a playoff spot, these two teams have opted to punt for next year. That undoubtedly helps the Twins, Guardians, Rangers, and Mariners, all of whom are vying for that final Wild Card spot in addition to their respective divisional races.
Tier 5 – No Man’s Land
| Reds | 53-58 | 1489 | 1506 | 2.3% | 1453 |
| Blue Jays | 52-60 | 1478 | 1500 | 4.7% | 1445 |
| Nationals | 55-58 | 1466 | 1503 | 2.6% | 1437 |
| Cardinals | 55-57 | 1459 | 1504 | 7.6% | 1434 |
The Blue Jays had a weird trade deadline. They dealt away Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho, two of their players on expiring contracts. They also went out and traded for right-handed starter José Soriano, giving up a significant prospect package to get the flamethrower from the Angels. Somehow, the Blue Jays successfully managed to straddle the line between selling and reloading for next year. Toronto’s follow-up season after coming so close to winning a championship has been incredibly disappointing, but the roster is built to win, World Series hangover be damned. Soriano and Arrighetti are two young starters who will definitely help the team in the years to come.
A five-game losing streak last week was a huge blow to the Nationals’ chances of staying in the NL Wild Card race down the stretch. They truly waived the white flag on competing this season when they traded Luis García Jr. to the Yankees on Sunday, then sent Foster Griffin to Cleveland on Monday. All is not lost in Washington, however. The offensive improvements seem like they’re for real, even if García Jr.’s power breakout was a big part of that jump forward. Now the Nats just need to figure out their pitching staff — and finding out if Cade Cavalli is the guy to lead the rotation is a big part of that.
Tier 6 – Hope Deferred
| Mets | 47-66 | 1461 | 1506 | 0.1% | 1425 |
| Giants | 47-65 | 1449 | 1504 | 0.0% | 1415 |
| Rockies | 45-67 | 1439 | 1509 | 0.0% | 1406 |
| Royals | 46-67 | 1434 | 1496 | 0.0% | 1402 |
| Angels | 43-69 | 1410 | 1499 | 0.0% | 1382 |
| Athletics | 45-67 | 1387 | 1502 | 0.0% | 1363 |
The Angels had a surprisingly strong deadline, embracing their role as a seller and netting a ton of young talent to restock a barren farm system. Interim general manager John Mozeliak ripped the Band-Aid off the team’s resistance to tear things down and set the Halos on the path toward a full-scale rebuild. Overhauling their development pipeline to support these new prospects is the next priority, but these moves were a good first step.
The Athletics’ truly miserable stretch of play continued into August. They won just five games in July and started this month off getting swept by the Tigers. The team was leading the division on May 26 and had a .500 record as recently as June 19, and now it’s on the verge of dropping below the Angels for the worst record in baseball. To make things worse, Nick Kurtz is dealing with a hand issue after being hit by a pitch on the forearm on Wednesday. It’s unclear if he’ll need another IL stint so soon after returning from a thumb injury.


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![[Highlight] George Lombard Jr.'s first big league hit is a HOME RUN!](https://external-preview.redd.it/NDB4cTg5cWw4Z2hoMeKCp6G-ZHrByNI4h9e7nS-aYeIofGx_KmaPf1LYKwb-.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=177bab147f574e25f29dbb128149c712feab65a3)
![[Highlight] George Lombard Jr. introduces himself with a homer for his first big league hit in his debut!](https://external-preview.redd.it/czE0b3ltY2w4Z2hoMZfKpYkD2EPRpKLuQW23V7mv65sqKwzcQ1i0BD0bWiVz.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=4c4d39b5865aa7534e65e8c283dc9e4bb6509aa1)








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