While the NL Cy Young race remains competitive this season, Cincinnati Reds starter Chase Burns has defied the odds by emerging as a candidate. He leads all NL pitchers in bWAR (2.5) and has a fastball that consistently reaches 98 mph, which ranks in the 94th percentile. 

He's rebounded from his troublesome 2025 rookie campaign, where he sported a 4.57 ERA and suffered an elbow strain in late August. He's entering his first full season looking to make a statement.  

This season, he's put his 2025 struggles behind him and has dominated in the rotation. He's been impressive with a 6-1 record and a pristine 1.83 ERA across his first 10 starts. 

He's also recorded 64 punchouts and a 0.95 WHIP across 59 innings pitched, limiting opposing batters to a .183 batting average (fifth in MLB). 

The only qualified starters with an ERA below 1.90 and an opponent AVG below .200 this season:

Cam Schlittler
Chase Burns ‼️

Burns has looked like one of the top pitchers in the game in his first full season in the bigs! pic.twitter.com/TBX41Xdtde

Why Chase Burns remains in the mix as an early NL Cy Young candidate

The 23-year-old Reds right-hander received a bold prediction from ESPN's Jeff Passan that he would win the award over reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes. 

This was back in early April, and it brought a lot of hype for Burns as Passan praised him for his robust arsenal, which — in addition to his dominant fastball — also includes a changeup that can fool left-handed hitters. But he also has an unhittable slider that generates an elite whiff rate of 50%.

Burns has raw talent, but he has a tough competition with Skenes being the favorite to win. As well as veterans, Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Chris Sale have dished out impeccable performances. 

The biggest aspect that could affect Burns' chances as the season progresses is his workload. Considering his age, the Reds will be tracking his innings and could limit his workload this season to conserve his arm for the future.