Ben Clemens 11:01 AM

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. We're testing out a new chat interface today, one that we'll hopefully roll out more broadly in the weeks to come. So come on, let's run it through its paces.

Kevin 11:01 AM

In a weekly transactions H2H league, would you risk rolling with Aroldis this week? I don't see why the Bosox would rush him back into action.

Ben Clemens 11:02 AM

Yeah, I would not. For exactly the reason you said. It just feels like you're opening yourself up to some risk without enough upside back for it. You're going to feel REALLY bad if they ease him back in and you're playing him. And on the flip side, what if he's not right immediately? Can't have a 0% chance of that.

SPArn 11:03 AM

Any favorite random MLBers as we wind down the stretch, or little hopeful glimpses? I still don't believe Scott Bandura is real, even though Mo'Ne Davis went to his debut, and I nearly shed a tear during Josiah Gray's return

Ben Clemens 11:03 AM

I mean, this guy is definitely very real, but David Freese is my all-time favorite good but not great guy who stuck around long enough for me to have fond memories of them.

Ben Clemens 11:04 AM

Many of mine are Cardinals themed because that's when I was most strongly a fan of a single team. Pete Kozma. Bo Hart.

Ben Clemens 11:05 AM

If we're talking current guys, well, how about Trent Harris, who I've grown inordinately fond of very quickly this year

SPArn 11:08 AM

Your piece(s) on Cade Cavalli are excellent, much more thorough and better reasoned than this. But, I think the extension boils down to: 4/47 is low risk enough it doesn't hurt if he regresses or breaks, and if it turns into 5/70, it must have worked out great for the Nats. All reporting seems like he's a truly excellent leader too. We came a long way from "sit down, boy" and we can all be grateful for that

Ben Clemens 11:08 AM

Yeah, I think that's basically the risk management part of mine. It's a good bet even if you know he gets hurt some of the time, because on average you get a nice amount of value out of signing him. I leave the leadership stuff aside – I agree with you that it's widely reported that way, I just think that those types of things are extremely subjective and don't hold over long periods of time anyway.

aldrinbatistarocks 11:09 AM

A while ago, I remember listening to a BP podcast in which they were talking about christopher morel, the gist of the discussion being "it's okay to acknowledge when a guy is probably having their career year." Are there any candidates in 2026 for guys you think hit their apex production this season?

Ben Clemens 11:09 AM

Love this one. Some easy ones for me: Otto Lopez. PCA. Gabriel Moreno. Randy Arozarena. Jake Bauers.

Ben Clemens 11:10 AM

I don't mean any of them ill by that. But I just think a ton of stuff broke well for those players in their years, and that it feels hard to have all of that plus more hit right in a future year for them to eclipse it. You can still be a very good player after hitting your apex production

smoothio 11:11 AM

Does Tatis have an MVP season in him?

Ben Clemens 11:11 AM

Whether he actually wins one? who can say. Whether he has the capability to? Clearly yes. He's played at an MVP level for half of this year, for example. The talent is definitely there. Winning an MVP is tough because you have to have it hit for a whole year when no one else hits their even better outcome.

oaktownblues 11:12 AM

Think the A's can hold onto a winning record against every AL west team this season? Just need to not lose series vs Angels and Astros

Ben Clemens 11:12 AM

I do. I think that'd be a pretty cool footnote on what was just a real bummer of a season. Kind of a hilarious one, too. The AL is a mess this year.

bosoxforlife 11:13 AM

The Red Sox should start Tolle in game 1 in The Bronx. The reality is that the Red Sox look outmatched and his personality fits the occasion perfectly and a few quick K's could change the mood.

Ben Clemens 11:13 AM

I like the idea of starting Tolle game one. I feel crazy saying this, but I kind of like the idea of just starting three lefties and daring the Yankees to play their righty platoon bats, kind of gambling on Judge being less than 100%

Anonymous Member #46 11:14 AM

Holy crap, I dig the new chat interface so far. No login issues!

Ben Clemens 11:14 AM

Great to hear. Sean and team are still working on adding functionality (polls, images, that kinda thing) but I have been liking the clean look and it gives us more flexibility on our end

Ben Clemens 11:15 AM

a little more legible and the scroll bars are nicer. Setting up the chat has more options. Basically this just has more options across the board. Oh, and I love the little FanGraphs icon by my name, so fun

oaktownblues 11:17 AM

How does the new chat interface differ on your end? Are questions organized differently than before?

Ben Clemens 11:17 AM

so, there's something I'm still getting used to, published those two out of order

riceball 11:19 AM

where does Yordan rank among unlikely batting title winners? (assuming he holds on)

Ben Clemens 11:19 AM

Nowhere near the top. He has a career .300 batting average! Among big league regulars, only Luis Arraez, Chandler Simpson (small-ish sample), and Jose Altuve are better

bosoxforlife 11:22 AM

I can't get over the fact that either the Guardians or the White Sox will, most likely, receive a bye in the first round while whoever wins the AL West plays the team that finishes second but gets the home field against a team with a better record. I don't want to pour cold water on the new interface but the submission box is too small to handle more than two lines of copy.

Ben Clemens 11:22 AM

Great feedback on the submission box. That sounds like an easy fix to me, I'll let Sean know.

As to the playoff system, yeah, I agree that this is a problem. I really like the bye system we have at current. It gives a reward for teams that have great regular seasons. But I agree that the divisional system interacts awkwardly with it. What if they handed out playoff spots the way they do now but pre-reseeded, ordering teams by record? I'm totally with you that it's a good idea that feels obviuosly unfair in practice.

SPArn 11:25 AM

Pitchers having their best year: Nick Martinez, Luzardo, Messick, Louis Varland, Martin Perez some candidates that leap to mind. (Don't say the Miz, don't say the Miz, don't say the Miz)

Ben Clemens 11:25 AM

I don't think the Miz counts. Like, yes, he's having an extremely good year. But he could throw more innings. the strikeouts don't look crazy unsustainable. it COULD be a career year but it doesn't feel like a blow-off top (a finance term I love and have been trying to use more of late) in the way that, say, Otto Lopez does

didace 11:26 AM

Submission box – The default seems small, but click/hold and drag the little thing in the bottom right corner and you can make it very large.

Sean Dolinar 11:26 AM

We are going to fix that once this chat is over. Thanks everyone for the feedback! – Sean

Ben Clemens 11:27 AM

Martinez doesn't count because this isn't even his best year! He had his career year in 2024 in Cincy. Luzardo, same kinda deal, he's basically repeating last season. probably not 'career year' territory. I definitely agree with you on Varland, don't think Messick is really fair since he's a rookie, and Martin Perez got a qualifying offer once!

Ben Clemens 11:28 AM

My own list would have: Reid Detmers, who I think is good but not this good. Sean Burke, though without much conviction there. And Foster Griffin.

Michael De Vivo 11:31 AM

will spencer jones be overmatched by playoff level pitching?

Ben Clemens 11:31 AM

If by overwhelmed you mean he'll strike out a lot, absolutely yes. He's a high-strikeout guy and the octane of pitchers ramps up int he playoffs. But it's not like he hasn't faced hard pitches in the regular season or in the minors. His game is tons of strikeouts and sometimes the ball leaves the yard. One playoff homer or so and we'llb e like man, this guy has it. And since homers are pretty rare events, it feels like Jones could be basically the same hitter and based on whether he happens to run into one or not we'll say he just didn't have it or performed as expected.

ado64 11:34 AM

Who do you think starts Brewers playoff game 3, and how many innings do they get? 3 innings of Gasser or Drohan, maybe? Does May ever start a game with his recent inconsistency?

Ben Clemens 11:34 AM

I think that some kind of piggyback situation is reasonable here. Like, three of Drohan with May backing him up? Or some other lefty/righty switch of that style. I'm extremely curious to see how they deploy Harrison.

Ben Clemens 11:36 AM

I really don't know what you do with Harrison. Like, he's been so bad recently! But he has such high highs. The test in relief hasn't gone all that well so far. It's not like they can afford to just not have him pithc, he was a big part of their run prevention this year.

Ben Clemens 11:41 AM

Sorry, I missed an answer before messing around iwth the interface. I meant to say that Harrison is the highest-unceratinty question in the entire playoff picture for me. The Brewers were the best team in baseball this year and Kyle Harrison was a ton of that. What are they going to look like with less good pitching? Can they figure out what ails him in time? I have no clue but I'm very excited to find out.

Anon21 11:45 AM

Maybe dumb question. When Team A is one game ahead of Team B in the standings and also holds the tiebreaker on Team B, it's often said that they effectively have a two-game lead. But is there a similar way of describing the situations of the Astros and White Sox, who are one game back in the standings but hold the tiebreaker over the team ahead? Like are they effectively 0.8 (or something) games back, rather than one? (I know this is accounted for by magic numbers, just wondering if there's a simple way to describe this situation.)

Ben Clemens 11:45 AM

I'd say they're one back with the tiebreaker. Or alternately that they're 'effectively only a half game back' because of the breaker. I agree with you that the wording is kind of tricky, though. You can't say they're 'effectively tied', that's not true. If they hvae the same records they won't make the playoffs

Nomar6666666 11:46 AM

No question really. Just a frustrated fan with few places to vent. If the owners lock out the players next season, and we miss one single game, I will not go to a single game next year, nor will I buy the MLB TV package. I Wii continue to support this site

Ben Clemens 11:46 AM

Nomar, we appreciate your continued support, of course. That's very kind. And honestly, I feel pretty similar. I think the owners are more to blame than the players for the upcoming fight we're sure to have. I don't feel great about anyone's role in this though. There's so much freaking money in baseball. Work it out between yourselves like adults so that we the fans, who pay a ton of money to enjoy your product, can still get it. No one is on our side in this negotiation, and that makes it feel bad

Braydon Roberts 11:49 AM

Thoughts on the NL RoY race? Seems like everyone gave it to Sal Stewart when JJ went on the IL, but Stewart has had a rough September. fWAR is 4.4 to 2.2 in JJ's favor.

Ben Clemens 11:49 AM

So, I've had JJ all along. I just don't really buy the arguments that some counting numbers matter so much that they're more important than the overall picture. I'm not saying Stewart's homers don't matter or anything. Obviously they do. But eh, the RBI's, I'm not as convinced by, because a stat like RE24 (which cares about driving in runs, but also cares about how many opportunities you had to drive in runs) says Stewart was about 10 runs better with the bat than Wetherholt this year so far.

Ben Clemens 11:49 AM

That's not a ton of runs better. And again, that accounts for the RBI and the homers and all. And if you care about win probability – as in how important those RBIs were – Wetherholt actually has a BETTER bat than Stewart

Ben Clemens 11:50 AM

Also he's a plus defender at an important position instead of a first baseman who defensive metrics aren't fond of

Ben Clemens 11:50 AM

Like, I get the sentiment. And I get wanting to push back against WAR and be like 'no the old stats we love still matter'

Ben Clemens 11:51 AM

There are times where I think that's true! I'd vote for Yordan by a mile for AL MVP, and it's because I think that his offensive value is so high that WAR is overly penalizing him for his defense. no one cares when you hit that well. BUt that's not Sal Stewart's case.

war2d2 11:52 AM

Don’t like the new interface, all my questions are still poorly thought out and badly edited. Thought it would have fixed that.

Ben Clemens 11:52 AM

That's coming in FanGraphs 2.0 🙂

Greg Simons 11:53 AM

Regarding last week's lack of any questions about lunch, I think we all figured someone else would ask. Of course, when that happens, you make a "fig" out of "u" and "re," or something like that. Whatever the case, I hope you have a good lunch planned today.

Ben Clemens 11:53 AM

Why thank you. It's like House said once, I think: That's what happens when you make a presumption. You make a pres out of you and some guy named umption.

As for lunch, leftovers from a very nice salmon dish that a friend of ours cooked this weekend.

WonderWall 11:54 AM

Piggybacking on Nomar's comments, why do you think that both the owners and the Union seem to pretty much refuse to let the situation continue. Why do both sides feel like something needs to change?

Ben Clemens 11:54 AM

Many possible answers to this. I think the most important, for me, is that they'd act this way even if they thought that 'no change' was acceptable, because that's how bargaining well in advance of a deadline works. So I'm hopeful that when the rubber meets the road, both sides will cave simultaneously.

Barbaro Garbey 11:54 AM

Thank you for the chat Ben. The Tigers have to feel good about former top prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark thriving in their first big league action this year. Wondering though if you have any thoughts on any of the "other" Tigers rookies who have been getting run down the stretch? Personally, I have loved watching the energy guys like Hao-Yu Lee and Eduardo Valencia have brought; and Ben Malgeri and Brett Callahan have at least looked like quality defensive outfielders (at least compared to some of the butchers the Tigers have put out there). Do you think any of this group could succeed/thrive in closer to a full time role next year?

Ben Clemens 11:54 AM

Truthfully I don't think I've seen enough of any of them to be all that sure, but I do think that they did enough that if I'm the Tigers, I'm interested in leaving some space for the minor leaguers to have bigger roles next year. Like, leave an outfield hole perhaps?

Phil 11:56 AM

Are we sure the Sox' best option, with Rafaela back, isn't Anthony in right and Gasper/Jones at DH? I'm not really believing in Duran right now.

Ben Clemens 11:56 AM

This seems like possibly the best option, but their behavior year to date basically tells me they won't be doing this. Or, well, assuming you mean Anthony in left, I like Abreu in right.

PC1970 11:58 AM

Would you even put Harrison on the roster if you were Milwaukee? He looks unplayable at the moment. Maybe overreaction, but, you also can't just punt a playoff game like they can a regular season game.

Ben Clemens 11:58 AM

I mean, I would. If I thought playing Harrison was punting a game, I wouldn't put him on there. But I kind of think that you need to give yourself chances to have your best possible team. And c'mon, if he's awful for two innings and you yank him, I think that's short of punting the game. I think that not rostering him would basically be playing too conservative. You should try to hit your high-upside outcomes to win in the playoffs, imo

Anon21 11:58 AM

Following up more on the lockout question…I think implicitly I'm assigning the probability of missing any games to be low, definitely less than 10%. Commentators throwing around the possibility of losing the whole season seem nuts to me–isn't that obviously suicidal from a business perspective? Where do you stand on probabilities of losing any games/a significant number of games/the whole season?

Ben Clemens 11:58 AM

I'm at least close to you on this one. I think I have the odds of missing games very low and the odds of missing a season at pretty close to zero. I just don't think the owners have the collective will. I don't think the players do either, when push comes to shove.

Robert Stewart 12:00 PM

After the Bregman injury, should MLB enforce the rule that on deck hitters should be in the on deck circle? I remember a few years ago when they did that and the batter (I think it was Beltre) moved the actual circle to where he was standing. He may have been ejected.

Ben Clemens 12:00 PM

No, because clearly this enforcement wouldn't stick and no one likes feeling either like a nanny or like they're being nanny stated by the umpires. The Beltre thing was a while ago at this point I think? But a specific umpire told him to get back in the circle so he moved it. It wasn't at the same time as an enforcement push or anything, if I'm remembering correctly.

wheelhouse 12:01 PM

Boston’s about to sail to the WS, no? Easy opponent after easy opponent ahead of them

Ben Clemens 12:01 PM

A jinx? A stealth insult? Who knows, let's hit publish.

Vee 12:01 PM

i would be very happy if this is not Pete's peak. I dream of 12 war PCA.

Ben Clemens 12:01 PM

Haha right? That one was kind of a gimme just because it's SO hard to imagine a better season.

HappyFunBall 12:02 PM

Is Kyle Harrison at risk of not even making the playoff roster?

Ben Clemens 12:02 PM

Didn't realize that this was less of a fringe opinion and more of a 'thing people are thinking'. I guess that I underestimated it. I don't really think that it's likely because he's good! Clearly capable of dominance. But the Brewers have a lot more granular data and maybe they really do think he's cooked for the moment. I just…. c'mon, the guy was so good earlier this year, and if you leave him off the playoff roster in the NLDS, you're never bringing him back on, you're accepting that you're just playing without this big important piece. I just hate settling like that.

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs 12:03 PM

Dider Fuentes is rolling as a mid-reliever, but do you think the Braves should stretch him back out into a starting role next year a la Strider?

Ben Clemens 12:03 PM

I think they'll try, realize that he's better in this current role, and move him back. They should try even if they don't think it'll work. The odds of it working are obviously not zero and he'd be more valuable by a lot if it stuck

appayipyip 12:04 PM

If you had to sit down and name every baseball player you can think of how many names could you get to?

Ben Clemens 12:04 PM

Oh man. Hundreds. Probably a thousand? I think I'd get tired before I ran out of names. Playing OOTP for many years, and Perfect Team in particular (Paul Sporer curates the sets over there and does an incredible job of finding fun old players) has given me a big memory bank of names

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs 12:04 PM

Holy crap, am I able to submit a question as a logged in FG member? That's the first time in months.

What you do suspect the Braves will do with Profar's contract after two long term suspensions with one year remaining (which isn't far off from a qualifying offer)? I can't imagine AA getting much of anything for him

Ben Clemens 12:04 PM

Oh yeah…. I think they'll either cut him or trade him eating all the money for a lottery ticket.

Ben Clemens 12:04 PM

Tebow sighting yesterday btw! At the Broncos Jags game. Florida man with Denver connections, makes sense.

Phil 12:05 PM

Yes, by right I meant left, sorry, and thanks. Also, Sean, can we bring back the thing where your own question is blue? That was both pleasurable and, particulalry when illicitly following the chat on a phone at work, useful.

Ben Clemens 12:05 PM

putting this in the log so Sean can see it too. I didn't even know about that feature. See, this is why it's good to test things.

jonmberra 12:07 PM

Do you think the Mariners can fix their defense this offseason? Seems like they hit a little worse than expected, and the team imploded because their defense is terrible.

Ben Clemens 12:07 PM

I do think this is fixable. I think it might kind of fix itself, to be honest. Their worst defenders by FRV are Crawford and Arozarena, both FA's. Luke Raley was bad in right before he got hurt, but he was also just not great overall, they're surely looking for better options. TO me, it looks like they're set up to improve on defense without even focusing on it specifically, just from the change in team composition.

draftdingers 12:09 PM

Do the Cardinals test the trade market for Herrera this offseason and could they even get a good return? Burleson seems to be the First Basemen for the next few years and I can't see Herrera staying behind the plate with his subpar defense and the glut at catcher coming through the system.

Ben Clemens 12:09 PM

I think that they'll test the trade market, and I think they will definitely get a good return if they decide to trade him. I think that zero-ish other teams see him as a catcher, though. I see him as a 1B/DH who can maybe be an emergency catcher, I didn't like the way the Cards kept tring him at catcher even after the writing was on the wall, at least to me.

Ben Clemens 12:10 PM

But when I was bouncing players off of my sources this summer and talking about Herrera as a fringy name, probably not top 50 trade value but surely top 100, people didn't have much to say about that eitehr way, which suggests to me that it's roughly right. Good plus bat, might benefit from not having to play catcher so often, cost controlled for a while. Teams would be interested in this for sure. He has a batting line 20% above average for his career and doesnt' cost much; the pitch sells itself.

kingkash7788 12:13 PM

how much has nimmala rose post trade deadline

Ben Clemens 12:13 PM

This is really more of a question for the prospect guys than for me but his stock is clearly up, impressive performance in Double-A at 20. I am not sure he's their starting shortstop on opening day next year because Neto is awesome and I'm not sold on a move to third base being inevitable. But I think that he's clearly arrow up from what we thought of him at the deadline. Good trade for the Angels. Might be a win-win, I think Soriano is gonna play well in Toronto next year, but the Angels have 100% done well there.

HappyFunBall 12:14 PM

re: Dider Fuentes. The question to ask is not whether or not he'll be better as a reliever. MOST pitchers are. That's why they get put there in the first place. The question to ask is will Fuentes be able to thrive in a 5+ innings role or not.

Ben Clemens 12:14 PM

Concur with this. And my thinking there is that if you're being honest with yourself, it's not certain whether he'll thrive in a 5+ inning role but he certainly hasn't ruled it out with his performance. Particularly if the Braves feel good about his feel for the splitter, which he's basically been able to mothball in relief but would surely need to add back in as a starter, I think it'd be crazy NOT to try. He's 21 and destroying major league hitting and came up as a starter.

sloejoe 12:15 PM

Thanks for the chat! Is Robert Gasser a starter next year? According to Roster Resource he is their 5th starter. Has he shown to have the stuff to move up?

Ben Clemens 12:15 PM

Yeah, the Brewers always use a bunch of starters interchangeably throughout the year but I have no reason to think he won't be one of them.

appayipyip 12:17 PM

If you were the Jays would you try to extend Soriano?

Ben Clemens 12:17 PM

I would. The weird part is the timing – like, if they haven't started on it now, I doubt they're getting it done before the lockout unless both sides really want it. So is it a next year post lockout kinda thing? Maybe. But I am generally a fan of trying to sign contract extensions when it makes even a little sense, and this one clearyl makes some sense.

fincampbell05 12:19 PM

What are the Red Sox going to do? They're going to have some money to spend, but there really isn't a clear hole on the roster except for SS, where they surely would not sign someone that blocks Arias, if there were even any good free agent shortstops.

Ben Clemens 12:19 PM

This isn't a great year to spend money, it's looking like. But that suits them just fine – like you said, there isn't a super clear hole on the roster aside from shortstop. And for me, backup at 3B because I dno't quite believe Durbin's torrid stretch. But I think I'd just be willing to keep some powder dry, basically. I think we've discussed their payroll situation some in recent weeks; it's really well set-up for next year, very few players leaving. Maybe they try to work out another year of Sonny Gray, maybe they just top up on pitching, but this is a great year to not need a bunch of players in FA, because the FA class is not good. I don't think they need to overcomplicate things too much – they went hard last winter, they can cool it this winter.

Rayball 12:20 PM

Who do you have emerging in this final week between TEX and HOU?

Ben Clemens 12:20 PM

Houston because they're like the bogeyman, they always seem to keep coming even when you think they're done. But no strong lean

drplantwrench 12:20 PM

Also another note: it would be nice to make `Your questions awaiting the host` collapsible

Ben Clemens 12:20 PM

Noted.

randomname1234 12:21 PM

If you're the Red Sox, do you tank this week and hope to get WC#3 instead of WC#2? Almost certainly not catching NY for WC#1, and road games against AL West and AL Central winners sound much better than road games against Yankees and Tampa.

Ben Clemens 12:21 PM

A few people asked versions of this earlier, I happened to like this phrasing most. But I'm answering all of your questions. No. I'd be happy if that happened, but I would not mess with wanting my good players to play well a week before the playoffs, for marginal gain. Matchups matter, but only so much, and there's no guarantee.

bosoxforlife 12:22 PM

I do not understand why teams don't see players like Herrera as a potential career DH and as a very valuable third catcher. Mickey Gasper is presently showing just how valuable that type of player is even if doesn't keep hitting at this level. When a team has two catchers it really only has one but with three all can be used freely.

Ben Clemens 12:22 PM

Oh I 100% agree. I think this is a leak among teams. And Herrera hits well enough, or at least projects to hit well enough, that you're not sacrificing offense anywhere, it's just free-ish value.

Phillip Denny 12:23 PM

Do you think Luzardo's injury means he's just a glorified opener (or maybe gives you 2-3) in the WC/DS? If so, is there an argument for turning him into a late inning fireman instead?

Ben Clemens 12:23 PM

I am unsure, but I am leaning towards him having very short starts, at which case yes, I'd prefer him as an impact reliever. I don't know if he is ready to warm up and play in that role, though, and given his at-times-injured past and his contract, if I'm the Phillies, I want him to give me a strong sign that he's interested in this role and thinks he'd do well at it

Ben Clemens 12:24 PM

Okay everyone, this was a wonderful chat, but now I'm going to go have that aforementioned salmon and start working on an article for tomorrow.

Ben Clemens 12:24 PM

Thanks for all the great questions, and for helping us test out the new chat interface. May the last week of the regular season be delightful for you, and let's get ready for the playoffs.