Updated  Sep 9, 2026, 3:38 PM GMT+1

With the official 30-man shortlist for the award now confirmed, and the 2025/26 season and World Cup both done and dusted, it's time to rank every nominee's chances of winning it.

Ranking factors: To help rank the players in order, we have considered the following criteria:

• Current form - how well a player has performed in the past few months
• Importance to their teams - how influential they are to their teams' performances
• Reputation - what others say about them
• Honours - team and individual awards

30 Julian Quinones

Al Qadsiah and Mexico

Julian Quinones' inclusion on the shortlist is the most eye-catching of the 30, but the forward's electric form since his move to Saudi Arabia's Al Qadsia has been impossible to ignore, with 37 goals in 35 games throughout 2025/26.

He was stunning for Mexico at the World Cup, bagging four goals including in each of his country's knockout games, and his nomination reflects the growing pull of Saudi football on the wider conversation, even if a maiden Ballon d'Or triumph remains a distant prospect.

29 Sadio Mane

Al Nassr and Senegal

Even in the twilight of his career in Saudi Arabia, Sadio Mane's standing as one of the finest African forwards of his generation still carries weight with voters.

His continued influence for Al Nassr and his leadership of the Senegal squad who - kind of - won AFCON have kept him on the periphery of the conversation, even if his best days are now behind him.

28 Nuno Mendes

PSG and Portugal

Nuno Mendes remains one of the most dynamic full-backs in world football, his combination of defensive discipline and attacking thrust a key feature of PSG's Champions League retention.

His World Cup with Portugal was a disappointing one as the nation slipped out earlier than hoped, but his club form alone was enough to earn him a nomination, closing in on 200 appearances and nearly 50 goal contributions for the French giants.

27 Willian Pacho

PSG and Ecuador

Willian Pacho has quietly become one of the most reliable centre-backs in Europe, marshalling PSG's back line throughout their run to a second successive Champions League title.

Composed on the ball and rarely caught out positionally, the Ecuadorian's rise has been one of the club's more understated success stories over the past 18 months.

26 Marc Cucurella

Real Madrid and Spain

Marc Cucurella capped a stunning rise with a World Cup winner's medal for Spain, slotting seamlessly into a title-winning back line before completing a move to Real Madrid.

His importance to La Roja's triumph in North America was unmistakable and his place in one of the biggest clubs in world football present an opportunity to cement himself as one of the game's true elites.

25 Dayot Upamecano

Bayern Munich and France

Dayot Upamecano was a colossus at the back for a Bayern Munich side that swept to the Bundesliga title, his physicality and composure the platform on which Vincent Kompany's season was built.

A difficult World Cup with France did little to dent his standing as one of the most complete centre-backs in Europe.

24 Marquinhos

PSG and Brazil

As PSG's captain, Marquinhos was the leadership figure behind a second successive Champions League triumph, his experience and reliability at the back a constant even as the squad around him evolved.

Brazil's World Cup once again ended before the latter stages, but his standing at club level has never been higher.

23 Lautaro Martinez

Inter and Argentina

Lautaro Martinez continues to lead Inter's line with distinction as he approaches his thirties, his goal return keeping the Nerazzurri in contention on multiple fronts throughout last season as they were crowned Serie A and Coppa Italia champions.

Argentina's bid to defend their world crown fell short, but the captain's armband at club level and consistent output have kept him firmly in the Ballon d'Or conversation, scoring 22 times in 41 appearances in all competitions in 2025/26.

22 Joao Neves

PSG and Portugal

Joao Neves has become one of the most productive midfielders in Europe this season, with his goal output climbing sharply as he's added an attacking edge to his usual ball-winning game for PSG.

He capped the campaign by lifting the Champions League for a second successive year, playing the full final as PSG retained their crown. The Portugal star was disappointing at the World Cup however, in a year when many tipped the nation for success due largely to the quality of their midfield.

21 Achraf Hakimi

PSG and Morocco

Achraf Hakimi remains one of the most dangerous full-backs anywhere in the world, his attacking output from right-back a key feature of PSG's run to a second consecutive Champions League title.

Morocco's World Cup campaign fell short of the historic heights of 2022, but Hakimi's club form has kept him firmly among the favourites.