The Astros and Marlins are discussing a trade that would send Sandy Alcantara to Houston, according to reporter Michael Schwab.  “Both sides are serious and interested,” as per Schwab, but there isn’t any indication that a deal is close to happening.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale regards Houston’s interest in Alcantara as a bit of a pivot, as talks with the Padres about Dylan Cease “have cooled.”

Alcantara missed the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery, and his return to action this year has been mixed at best.  The right-hander has a 6.36 ERA over 109 innings, with lot of hard contact allowed and a 16.8% strikeout rate that would represent a career low.  There have been a few flashes of vintage Alcantara, and his last two starts have seen the former NL Cy Young Award winner toss 12 innings with only a single unearned run allowed.  Alcantara’s fastball is still averaging 97.5mph, which is down from the 98mph he averaged during the 2021-23 seasons, yet that isn’t an egregious drop considering the righty’s long layoff.

As perhaps the top premium trade chip the Marlins have left after their latest fire sale, Alcantara’s shaky performance represents a challenge for the front office.  The Fish could simply wait until the offseason to try and re-visit trade talks, perhaps after Alcantara has posted better numbers in the final two months to boost his value.  Or, the Marlins could trade Alcantara before tomorrow’s deadline if a rival team comes close to matching (or even matches) what was surely a high initial asking price for the hurler’s services.

Despite Alcantara’s struggles, the Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, and Padres remained linked to his trade market.  San Diego’s interest is related to the Cease talks, as the speculation has been that the Padres could both deal Cease (an impending free agent) to address multiple roster needs, while then adding another starting pitcher either as part of the return for Cease for in another deal altogether.

Cease was reportedly the Astros’ top deadline target, so this turn towards Alcantara could represent a number of things.  It could be simply due diligence on Houston’s part, or a sign that the talks with San Diego are going nowhere because the Padres wish to retain Cease, or perhaps a sign that the Padres are more motivated to send Cease elsewhere.

Whereas Cease is a rental, Alcantara is controlled through the 2027 season.  He is owed the remainder of his $17MM salary for 2025, $17MM more in 2026, and Miami has a $21MM club option for 2027 that contains a $2MM buyout.  Adding Alcantara over Cease would be a whole new financial ballgame for the Astros, who made an effort to stay under the luxury tax threshold this past winter.

With the Mariners and Rangers charging hard in the AL West race, Astros owner Jim Crane may be willing to pay into the tax again in order to give his team some much-needed reinforcements.  If the pre-TJ version of Alcantara emerges, his salary suddenly looks like a relative bargain for a frontline pitcher.  Framber Valdez is also a free agent after the season, so the Astros could view Alcantara as a longer-term replacement if Valdez walks.