RedBuuuuddd! Heck yeah, the Fourth of July motocross weekend celebration is always awesome, but this year’s 5.11 RedBud National is set to feel a little extra special. This is America’s 250th birthday party, and July 4th just happens to land on a Saturday, which is, of course, race day. That amazing coincidence of timing collides with the clash of champions at the top of the racing charts. You know what we’re talking about: Lawrences versus Danger Boy has created massive hype and interest in the series this summer, and crowds have been massive at the first four rounds. Any doubts that RedBud will keep that trend going?

The racing is good, too! We’ll get to the Deegan hype in a second but the Lawrence brothers themselves are bringing the battle…to each other! Hunter and Jett have never been this close. Hunter crushed the opener when Jett was returning from his foot injury and suffering rare bad starts. Jett came back with four-straight moto wins which created a look eerily similar to previous summers of Jett 450 dominance.

Not quite!

Hunter admitted that after his round-one win he did some more testing in California and probably went the wrong direction, and he didn’t like his bike at the second and third rounds. He also didn’t like it early at High Point, so he told the team to just go back to base settings and bam!: He was the best guy for the rest of the day, straight up, full stop.

The straight up part is key. Few have taken it to Jett where he just didn’t have an answer, speed wise. Hunter was there at High Point. Hunter, also, has been very good at that track, historically. So was that a High Point thing or a “Hunter is just better than Jett now” thing? The margin is very, very close between them so it would not be crazy for the pendulum to keep flipping every weekend. Good stuff.

Okay, now to the topic everyone wants to discuss: Deegan! The kid has certainly brought the love-it-or-hate it vibes to the 450 class. Half the fans are reveling in him not beating Jett in a moto yet, half are saying he’s doing awesome for a rookie. Both things are true, of course, but “both things can be true” is a phrase that basically no longer exists in today’s polarized society. Things must be either amazing or terrible, they can’t be both and things certainly can’t be somewhere in the middle. Anything.

So we’ll try to figure this out. Is Haiden winning like Jett was as a rookie? No. Is he riding well? Yes. Is he getting closer to winning? That’s the hard part. The Lawrences perfected the art of going only as fast as necessary, which really obscures the bench racing. Haiden, himself, said he was 30 seconds behind Jett at Thunder Valley in moto two and only three seconds behind at High Point in moto two. But Jett goes only as fast as needed. At Thunder Valley he had Lucas Coenen on his tail so Jett had to hammer. At High Point, he eventually realized he wasn’t going to beat Hunter so he settled in for second. Then Deegan found his groove (more on that in a second) and started gaining. Jett amped it up for a lap or two to hold him at bay. It’s the usual Jett strategy we’ve seen for five-plus years now. It often looks like someone is gonna catch and pass him…but they almost never do.

But again, holding anyone to the Jett Standard is tough. He’s about as good as anyone has ever been on a motorcycle. Not beating Jett’s rookie record doesn’t mean Haiden is riding badly. Yes, Haiden held himself to that standard when he talked some trash and wore that “RIP Jett” t-shirt but if you strip away the hype and discuss what actually matters—how the riding is going—there’s not much to complain about.

Deegan, at High Point, bested Jorge Prado in a great battle. Prado held Deegan at bay in moto one and Deegan got him in moto two. Prado is good. Prado is a World Champion. Prado is riding much better this year now that he’s back on a KTM. Deegan is beating him more than he's beating Deegan. That’s a heck of a standard for a rookie, even if it doesn’t meet the Jett Standard of 22-0.

This small four-race sample size doesn’t help. There's still much to learn. RedBud marks the sandiest surface so far this year, so who will that help? Prado could bounce back immediately. Maybe throttle-happy 250-style Deegan has a better time on a track like this. He sure got comfortable late in the laps at High Point. Lawrences are good on any track, maybe you’ve noticed. You can dive as deep into the data as you want. Deegan won his first-ever 250 race overall as a pro rookie at RedBud. But that day Hunter, a veteran of the 250s, beat him in moto one and then got tangled in a bad first-turn crash in moto two.

Earlier in this piece we mentioned the America’s 250th birthday thing. You know Haiden would love nothing more than to rock a big American flag on the podium this weekend. Fans are gonna be going crazy. What an atmosphere it will be. Plus, the 450 class might have lost luminaries like Eli Tomac and Chase Sexton, but the field is still deep. Aaron Plessinger showed signs of life, finally, at High Point. Garrett Marchbanks has been great. RJ Hampshire has been better than what has been noticed. Dylan Ferrandis has been hot and cold. Heck, Antonio Cairoli is even showing up for the next few weekends to race a Ducati! Lots of depth there.

Meanwhile down in the 250s, the record book says four winners in four rounds and five riders separated by 16 points. That’s good stuff. It’s very likely this weekend becomes a turning point for someone. If Cole Davies wins back-to-back on two different surfaces, and thus also proves he can do it on a hot day (RedBud 2026 isn’t forecasted as warm hot as some previous years, but it will be the warmest race of this season thus far) it will very likely be the tipping point. That’s a big if, though. Jo Shimoda is the  guy who never gets tired and never fades in a season. Is he just entering his best stretch? Did Levi Kitchen just have one bad weekend? Can Julian Beaumer become winner number five? Is Chance Hymas still Chance Hymas?

The questions abound and the first four races haven’t provided the definitive answers. Hold on tight, it’s RedBuuuuuddd this weekend!