This year’s MLB Home Run Derby will focus more on quality instead of quantity.

Instead of timed rounds, hitters get a set number of swings — 20 in Round 1 and 15 each in Round 2 and Round 3 — which should improve the experience for hitters and viewers.

With this format, making good contact is even more important because every swing counts, regardless of whether a batter homers.

The field is stacked with Kyle Schwarber leading as the favorite (+340), followed by Munetaka Murakami (+470), Junior Caminero (+490), Jordan Walker (+600), Jac Caglianone (+650), Bryce Harper (+800), Ben Rice (+900), and Wilson Contreras (11/1).

2026 Home Run Derby odds

All-Star events are great betting opportunities because you can find statistical indicators to make a good case for who to bet on and then compare that to the odds. In this case, I’m looking at Exit Velocity, Hard Hit percentage, Launch Angle, and Hard Hit percentage.

If you focus on power numbers like Exit Velocity and Hard Hit percentage, Murakami stands out among the group. His average Exit Velocity is 94.4 mph, and his Hard Hit percentage is 59.7 percent.

If you select for contact numbers like Launch Angle and Sweet-Spot percentage, Schwarber has the edge with an average Launch Angle of 21.8 degrees and a Sweet-Spot percentage of 39.5 percent.

This new format should put a bit more emphasis on the latter two, but power is still important for getting out of the opening round, with home run distance as the tiebreaker.

St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Jordan Walker. Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The player who represents the most value on the board compared to their odds is Rice. He has the second-longest odds among the group, but has the second-best average rank across the four indicators behind Schwarber. The drawback with Rice is that his average home run distance (389 feet) and longest home run (433 feet) trail the rest of the field.

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Walker, who has the third-best average rank among this group, is the other player I’m targeting. He has the profile to be a strong competitor with a better average home run distance (406 feet) and the third-longest homer (459 feet).

I’ll split my bet across both guys and hope for some fireworks.

The Play: Ben Rice (+900, FanDuel) | Jordan Walker (+600)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.